5 ms·

Just to balance your comment slightly, the UK death rate is not out of proportion to other countries in Europe.

cjlars 6y ago
Excess deaths are comparable to other 'out of control' EU countries, like Spain, Italy and Belgium, but UK is definitely among the problem group. [charts halfway down the link] https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...
- StartupTree 6y ago
  Yes agreed, UK is a problem group. Unfortunately the thrust of the arguments above yours is that the UK is uniquely terrible. This is not because of the data, but because many people strongly despise the current rightwing government. This is why the quality of discussion here will be limited.
  - IkmoIkmo 6y ago
    I added some extra details and nuance if you're interested. Very unfortunate to see you imply I'm presenting the facts about the UK because of my political leaning and why my contribution to the discussion must thereby be biased, and limited. I don't despise the government at all, I don't live in the UK and frankly prior to the Covid-19 crisis I'd probably have picked the UK (including its government) to come out of this crisis best. But the facts turned out different.
- IkmoIkmo 6y ago
  It's the country with the highest absolute number of excess death, and the 2nd highest (61%) after Belgium (66%) of relative excess death. And that's while lagging behind Belgium, which had a daily number of infection reported the past few days of about 20% of the peak figure. For the UK they're only at about 60% of the peak figure. You're comparing two countries at different points in their lockdown-cycle. And this is very relevant in an exponentially developing health crisis where total-infected (correlated with total-deaths) see doubling times measured in days, meaning that comparing two countries 1-2 weeks apart can mean you're undercounting by 50% or even 75%. The UK's figures are worsening far faster than Belgium the next weeks. And Belgium, by the way, is testing at a rate of 1.75x that of the UK on a per capita basis. If the UK ramped up testing as much, they'd likely fare even worse in these comparisons. In other words, it looks like it literally is the worst managed country in Europe. I don't know about you guys but being 'part of an outlier out of control problem group' is not 'proportionate for Europe' to me, and winning the prize for worst hit of that group, definitely isn't.
- orwin 6y ago
  The fact that UK's number are much worse than France and worse than Italy is shameful. I'm not talking about belgium, the governement there is a joke since 2010, only redeeming thing are Belgians. The US as the best population density except in a few area, few train line and major road (and a lot of toll roads too), as well as early cases with limited infection spread. I think US numbers are OK for now but getting higher than ~30% excess mortality with their advantages would be a pretty bad look for their government.
IkmoIkmo 6y ago
Not sure how you define not out of proportion. Look at the FT or NYT international comparative excess death studies. Excess death is definitely in the top 3 and looks to be nr 1 in all of Europe's 30-50 countries. And this is despite having one of the best positions as one of its richest, relatively few tourists per capita compared to many other countries like Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands etc, the vast majority of visitors arriving by air which was relatively easy and uncontroversial to shut down compared to shutting down land borders in Europe (particularly for landlocked countries). And lastly, it was hit later than much of Europe let alone Asia, which is massively important. When you have early-outbreak doubling times of 2 days, getting hit 4 days later can mean a 4x difference in the infection/death numbers. It had absolutely no excuse, particularly compared to other countries, to erroneously downplay this pandemic. Unfortunately whereas many other countries like Spain or Italy are seeing far fewer infection numbers than weeks ago, the UK is seeing just as many as weeks ago. It's slowly improving, but it's nowhere near the home-stretch as other countries are, yet it's relaxing conditions. Finally, it's not even testing as much as other countries, with tests at a rate of 29k per million, whereas Italy/Spain are at respectively 44k and 52k. This has mismanagement written all over it. Indeed if I came across as implying the UK is 10x worse than everywhere else, no it's nowhere near that disproportional. But it clearly seems to have had one of the best starting positions and worst outcomes, and one of the furthest away from significant improvements.

Excess deaths are comparable to other 'out of control' EU countries, like Spain, Italy and Belgium, but UK is definitely among the problem group. [charts halfway down the link] https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...

StartupTree 6y ago
Yes agreed, UK is a problem group. Unfortunately the thrust of the arguments above yours is that the UK is uniquely terrible. This is not because of the data, but because many people strongly despise the current rightwing government. This is why the quality of discussion here will be limited.
- IkmoIkmo 6y ago
  I added some extra details and nuance if you're interested. Very unfortunate to see you imply I'm presenting the facts about the UK because of my political leaning and why my contribution to the discussion must thereby be biased, and limited. I don't despise the government at all, I don't live in the UK and frankly prior to the Covid-19 crisis I'd probably have picked the UK (including its government) to come out of this crisis best. But the facts turned out different.
IkmoIkmo 6y ago
It's the country with the highest absolute number of excess death, and the 2nd highest (61%) after Belgium (66%) of relative excess death. And that's while lagging behind Belgium, which had a daily number of infection reported the past few days of about 20% of the peak figure. For the UK they're only at about 60% of the peak figure. You're comparing two countries at different points in their lockdown-cycle. And this is very relevant in an exponentially developing health crisis where total-infected (correlated with total-deaths) see doubling times measured in days, meaning that comparing two countries 1-2 weeks apart can mean you're undercounting by 50% or even 75%. The UK's figures are worsening far faster than Belgium the next weeks. And Belgium, by the way, is testing at a rate of 1.75x that of the UK on a per capita basis. If the UK ramped up testing as much, they'd likely fare even worse in these comparisons. In other words, it looks like it literally is the worst managed country in Europe. I don't know about you guys but being 'part of an outlier out of control problem group' is not 'proportionate for Europe' to me, and winning the prize for worst hit of that group, definitely isn't.
orwin 6y ago
The fact that UK's number are much worse than France and worse than Italy is shameful. I'm not talking about belgium, the governement there is a joke since 2010, only redeeming thing are Belgians. The US as the best population density except in a few area, few train line and major road (and a lot of toll roads too), as well as early cases with limited infection spread. I think US numbers are OK for now but getting higher than ~30% excess mortality with their advantages would be a pretty bad look for their government.

IkmoIkmo 6y ago

Not sure how you define not out of proportion. Look at the FT or NYT international comparative excess death studies. Excess death is definitely in the top 3 and looks to be nr 1 in all of Europe's 30-50 countries. And this is despite having one of the best positions as one of its richest, relatively few tourists per capita compared to many other countries like Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands etc, the vast majority of visitors arriving by air which was relatively easy and uncontroversial to shut down compared to shutting down land borders in Europe (particularly for landlocked countries). And lastly, it was hit later than much of Europe let alone Asia, which is massively important. When you have early-outbreak doubling times of 2 days, getting hit 4 days later can mean a 4x difference in the infection/death numbers. It had absolutely no excuse, particularly compared to other countries, to erroneously downplay this pandemic. Unfortunately whereas many other countries like Spain or Italy are seeing far fewer infection numbers than weeks ago, the UK is seeing just as many as weeks ago. It's slowly improving, but it's nowhere near the home-stretch as other countries are, yet it's relaxing conditions. Finally, it's not even testing as much as other countries, with tests at a rate of 29k per million, whereas Italy/Spain are at respectively 44k and 52k. This has mismanagement written all over it. Indeed if I came across as implying the UK is 10x worse than everywhere else, no it's nowhere near that disproportional. But it clearly seems to have had one of the best starting positions and worst outcomes, and one of the furthest away from significant improvements.