6 ms·

> Catching this virus is a bit like playing a round of Russian roulette. Well, the comparison is a bit unfair, recent studies [1] give : P(death | infected) =

• evross 6y ago
  Russian roulette might be an unfair comparison, but it may only be one order of magnitude different to this virus IFR. With probability a number between 0 and 1, percentage is between 0 and 100. From the study in your source [1] the P(death|infected) = 0.005 And Russian roulette P(death | play) = 0.16 In percentages: Covid19 - IFR = 0.5%, Russian roulette = 16% From this calculation based on the recent New York antibody study [2] the average IFR across all age groups is 1.31%. (0 + 0.017 + 0.067 + 0.13 + 0.45 + 1.26 + 3.16 + 5.4)/8 = 1.31% This is a much higher IFR than flu or H1N1 (IFR was 0.02% in 2009, 65 times less). [1] https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02548181 https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02548181 "We find 2.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.53% die" [2] https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/g6pqsr/nysnyc_antibody_study_updates/foc1cbf/ https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/g6pqsr/nysnyc_anti... 0-19 ~= 0%; 20-29 = 0.017%; 30-39 = 0.067%.; 40-49 = 0.13%; 50-59 = 0.45%; 60-69 = 1.26%; 70-79 = 3.16%; 80+ = 5.4%;
  • repied 6y ago
    > Covid19 - IFR = 0.5%, Russian roulette = 16% Thanks for the correction and the new study link.