4 ms·

Since the other causes of death remain static in this chart, its hard to tell if Covid-19 are new cases or "take away from other causes" (and by what percentage

by Murkin 6y ago

Since the other causes of death remain static in this chart, its hard to tell if Covid-19 are new cases or "take away from other causes" (and by what percentage). Would be interesting to see daily chart of Covid-19 deaths as % of total deaths and daily total deaths. PS. Extra points - number of deaths due to lockdowns (suicides, unaccessible healthcare, etc)

tomjakubowski 6y ago
One data point: in New York City, deaths at home have increased from about 20-25 per day to 245, averaged over a recent week. https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-ho...
- chmod775 6y ago
  That's... more misleading thsn useful by itself. Of course when people they die they'll do so at home when they can't be somewhere else.
iso1631 6y ago
Indeed, this is the key question, what are the number of excess deaths compared with this time last year. Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed (e.g. "number of deaths registered last week") for any country or region in the world? If you die of heart failure and happen to be covid infected (which is likely given how widespread it is) do you go down as a covid death rather than a heart failure?
- iso1631 6y ago
  > Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed To answer my own question, yes https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2019-to-2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mo... I love gov.uk Week 9 commences March 2nd (I'm assuming the weeks are the same as ISO weeks) Week | Total dead(E+W) | Covid (UK) | Excess mortality 8 Feb24-Mar1 | 10,841 | 0 | ... 9 Mar 2-8 | 10,816 | 3 | no 10 Mar 9-15 | 10,895 | 32 | no 11 Mar 16-22 | 11,019 | 300 | no 12 Mar 23-29 | 10,645 | 1073 | no 13 Mar30-Apr5 | n/a | 3965 | yes -- England overall and 65+. not in Wales/Scotland/NI. Specific England regions - London, South East, E+W Midlands, North West Note the graph showing the recent increase: https://i.imgur.com/McBopJql.png https://i.imgur.com/McBopJql.png The next weekly report is out tomorrow, which should have the total death figures for week 13. It looks like in week 12 though, 10% of deaths in the UK were put down to COVID, but the total increase on the year before wasn't that high. Next week will be englightening Covid death figures from wikipedia. GovUK also have this, hospital admissions. Look at the massive fall over the last few weeks. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877600/EDSSSBulletin2020wk13.pdf.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
  - thu2111 6y ago
    Ah great find. I was looking for UK hospital admissions data. That's pretty shocking. Pneumonia and respiratory has hardly moved (where is the wave???) yet there's a huge fall in emergency cardiac patients. That's worrying. It implies people having heart attacks are choosing not to go to hospital fast enough, even though they could.
    - iso1631 6y ago
      I'm assuming that half those attendances aren't because of heart attacks, but are to do with routine follow up appointments?
      - thu2111 6y ago
        Isn't this data for emergency admissions only?
        iso1631 6y ago
        True, "Emergency departments" https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1406.full.pdf https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1406.full.pdf People are ignoring stroke symptoms and failing to ring 999 because they fear being a burden on the NHS in England duringthe covid-19 pandemic, the national clinical director for stroke has warned. Deb Lowe, consultant stroke physician at Wirral University Teaching Hospital, said that doctors across the country were seeing “quite striking reductions” in the number of people coming into hospital with symptoms of stroke. She said, “It appears that people aren’t seeking emergency help or going to hospital when they suspect a stroke, possibly due to fear of the virus or not wanting to be a burden on the NHS.”
nradov 6y ago
The excess deaths caused by the lockdown are likely to be spread out over years. They will be deaths of despair from suicide, substance abuse, and chronic diseases (including depression). The epidemiologists and public health officials don't appear to be factoring those deaths into their models.
2019-nCoV 6y ago
The long tail of deaths that have been subverted must also be taken into account, e.g. take those who would have otherwise passed in the near future to lung disease who succumb to the virus, they inflate this number, but next year's lung disease numbers will be proportionately lower.
hsod 6y ago
This graph shows total mortality in NY state https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1247728338484985857?s=20 https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1247728338484985857?s=20

by Murkin 6y ago

tomjakubowski 6y ago

One data point: in New York City, deaths at home have increased from about 20-25 per day to 245, averaged over a recent week. https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-ho...

chmod775 6y ago
That's... more misleading thsn useful by itself. Of course when people they die they'll do so at home when they can't be somewhere else.

iso1631 6y ago

Indeed, this is the key question, what are the number of excess deaths compared with this time last year. Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed (e.g. "number of deaths registered last week") for any country or region in the world? If you die of heart failure and happen to be covid infected (which is likely given how widespread it is) do you go down as a covid death rather than a heart failure?

iso1631 6y ago
> Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed To answer my own question, yes https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2019-to-2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mo... I love gov.uk Week 9 commences March 2nd (I'm assuming the weeks are the same as ISO weeks) Week | Total dead(E+W) | Covid (UK) | Excess mortality 8 Feb24-Mar1 | 10,841 | 0 | ... 9 Mar 2-8 | 10,816 | 3 | no 10 Mar 9-15 | 10,895 | 32 | no 11 Mar 16-22 | 11,019 | 300 | no 12 Mar 23-29 | 10,645 | 1073 | no 13 Mar30-Apr5 | n/a | 3965 | yes -- England overall and 65+. not in Wales/Scotland/NI. Specific England regions - London, South East, E+W Midlands, North West Note the graph showing the recent increase: https://i.imgur.com/McBopJql.png https://i.imgur.com/McBopJql.png The next weekly report is out tomorrow, which should have the total death figures for week 13. It looks like in week 12 though, 10% of deaths in the UK were put down to COVID, but the total increase on the year before wasn't that high. Next week will be englightening Covid death figures from wikipedia. GovUK also have this, hospital admissions. Look at the massive fall over the last few weeks. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877600/EDSSSBulletin2020wk13.pdf.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
- thu2111 6y ago
  Ah great find. I was looking for UK hospital admissions data. That's pretty shocking. Pneumonia and respiratory has hardly moved (where is the wave???) yet there's a huge fall in emergency cardiac patients. That's worrying. It implies people having heart attacks are choosing not to go to hospital fast enough, even though they could.
  - iso1631 6y ago
    I'm assuming that half those attendances aren't because of heart attacks, but are to do with routine follow up appointments?
    - thu2111 6y ago
      Isn't this data for emergency admissions only?
      - iso1631 6y ago
        True, "Emergency departments" https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1406.full.pdf https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1406.full.pdf People are ignoring stroke symptoms and failing to ring 999 because they fear being a burden on the NHS in England duringthe covid-19 pandemic, the national clinical director for stroke has warned. Deb Lowe, consultant stroke physician at Wirral University Teaching Hospital, said that doctors across the country were seeing “quite striking reductions” in the number of people coming into hospital with symptoms of stroke. She said, “It appears that people aren’t seeking emergency help or going to hospital when they suspect a stroke, possibly due to fear of the virus or not wanting to be a burden on the NHS.”

nradov 6y ago

The excess deaths caused by the lockdown are likely to be spread out over years. They will be deaths of despair from suicide, substance abuse, and chronic diseases (including depression). The epidemiologists and public health officials don't appear to be factoring those deaths into their models.

2019-nCoV 6y ago

The long tail of deaths that have been subverted must also be taken into account, e.g. take those who would have otherwise passed in the near future to lung disease who succumb to the virus, they inflate this number, but next year's lung disease numbers will be proportionately lower.

hsod 6y ago

This graph shows total mortality in NY state https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1247728338484985857?s=20 https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1247728338484985857?s=20