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Intensely interesting. This is the most poignant section in the article: "For example, imagine a man we’ll call Sam, who was born in 1900 and died in 1974. Sa
by calvinfroedge 16y ago
Intensely interesting. This is the most poignant section in the article:
"For example, imagine a man we’ll call Sam, who was born in 1900 and died in 1974. Sam entered a world of iceboxes, horse-drawn buggies and, commonly, outhouses. He died in a world of air-conditioning, Chevy Camaros and Moon landings. His life was defined by dramatic material changes, and Sam worked feverishly hard to build a company that sold brake systems. Sam wasn’t the most refined person, but he understood that if he wanted to create a secure life for his family he had to create wealth."
I would add to this that between 1950, when Sam was an adult member of the working class, though nearing retirement, the world's population was 2 billion, and today, the world's population is 8 billion. That in itself is going to manifest incredible levels of change.
I think the trend we're going to see over the NEXT century is going to be a return to production, away from SOLELY consumption of goods, simply because, as the article stated, there are fewer low hanging fruits. Couple that with many more mouths to feed, and you have a recipe for a very different world in 100 years.
I believe just for the human race to survive, people will need to start growing food, en masse, at a local level. Even people in cities. Energy consumption continues to rise, but the means to produce it become more and more expensive. We will need to produce alternative methods of energy gathering - which are renewable. So what does the future hold, in my opinion?
1. Rapid population decline after continued population growth because of lack of ability to support growth (ie Malthusian theory)
2. A "return to the farm" - a resurgence in small farms. Energy costs WILL bring down big agrabusiness - just wait.
3. People using more LOCALIZED means to generate energy. In the Philippines, for example (I was there in July 2009), there were a lot of geothermal plants being built near volcanos. Hawaii has been investing a lot in harnessing wave power (and generating a lot of controversy from the surfer community). I attended a "Blue Planet" presentation in Honoulu in May 2009 and talked to many of the leaders of this initiative. Germany is the world's LEADER in solar energy now. People will take what they can get, where they can get it, to meet their power needs. Even in rural Kentucky, people are starting to put solar panels on their houses.
4. Thank god, less of an obsession with money and stuff. Basic survival will once again trump all other needs until we can again reach a level of production where people can go through another lazy cycle.
- Unseelie 16y agoAside from the fact that our global growth rate has been dropping for the last twenty years, I'd like to point out that actually feeding the population isn't a problem. Feeding it beef may well be, but the primary issues with world starvation is that the market is held above their heads by unnatural means (fallow field subsidies in the US, solar subsidies in Europe, and lack of agricultural subsidy in Africa, just for example). Big agrabusiness, BTW, exists only because it is more cost-efficient than small farms, and as such could better weather rising energy prices. Energy prices will not ever be high enough to crush big agrabusiness; A large agrabusiness would build private nuclear plants first. Beyond that point, Localized fuel is a funtion of rising fuel prices. Energy exists in the world, in the form of deep sea oil, shale oil, natural gas, and coal on a scale that makes a mockery of any renewable movement. Its about cost-effectiveness of extraction, which, as energy prices rise, will make so many sources of energy available to us long before it makes renewables an efficient plan.
- calvinfroedge 16y agoAll good points (very good points). I think we will see the cost of extraction result in a net energy loss by the end of the decade, and maybe sooner. I could be wrong, though. As for growth rates, where do you see that global growth is declining? I think that's only in advanced industrialized societies (like Germany and Japan) where birth rates are lower than death rates. Even in the US, population continues to grow, and big increases are expected.
- Unseelie 16y agoIt's been a while since I researched it, but my impression was that the growth rate had been decelerating since the seventies. Not that it isn't still a growth rate, just a lower one. About energy, I expect that higher prices make many more sources of energy available to the market than is available now, and I don't expect the demand to drop without a very fundamental change....we've still got lots of room for energy prices to go up in our market.
- rmc 16y agoI'm always skeptical about predictions of a coming food shortage. It's been predicated for the last 200 (Malthus' An Essay on the Principle of Population was published in 1800), and it hasn't happened yet.