4 ms·

> "All our ICU patients are in their 50s or younger" I was expecting a Triage-scenario to be the cause of this, but since they're not just yet at capacity, tha

> "All our ICU patients are in their 50s or younger" I was expecting a Triage-scenario to be the cause of this, but since they're not just yet at capacity, that can't be the case either. How is this anomaly to be explained? EDIT: Apparently, they are over-capacity, I was left under the impression, they hadn't turned anyone away from ICU... nevertheless, I still don't understand how that anomaly is possible... it's statistically very unlikely: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8181359/Doctor-returns-work-recovering-coronavirus-capacity-intensive-care-unit.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8181359/Doctor-retu...

op03 6y ago
13 patients is not a big anomaly. Check the historic number for respiratory related illnesses and deaths for the region and you will have context. Could be a lot of smokers .
- klingonopera 6y ago
  Yeah, but for a virus that even more heavily affects older people, it's super unlikely you'd get 13 under-60s and not a single over-60. It's like flipping a coin and getting 13 times heads, possible, but super unlikely. And we're not even talking about odds of 50:50, but 33:67 for young/old. So, he got 13 times heads in a row? If yes, he's probably at the only hospital in the world to have that kind of a luck. EDIT: The odds for 13 times heads in a row, is about 0.01%. So, one in 10,000 hospitals... hm, ok, that does seem likely to occur more than once on a global scale.
  - op03 6y ago
    Agree we wouldn't be hearing about it if it wasn't odd. Just saying subtract out what conditions/ages in normal times occupy those beds and the odds will change. But I am too lazy to do it - https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Health-and-Social-Care/Births-Deaths-and-Conceptions/Deaths/Deaths-by-Cause https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Health-and-Social-Car... https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...

op03 6y ago

13 patients is not a big anomaly. Check the historic number for respiratory related illnesses and deaths for the region and you will have context. Could be a lot of smokers .

klingonopera 6y ago
Yeah, but for a virus that even more heavily affects older people, it's super unlikely you'd get 13 under-60s and not a single over-60. It's like flipping a coin and getting 13 times heads, possible, but super unlikely. And we're not even talking about odds of 50:50, but 33:67 for young/old. So, he got 13 times heads in a row? If yes, he's probably at the only hospital in the world to have that kind of a luck. EDIT: The odds for 13 times heads in a row, is about 0.01%. So, one in 10,000 hospitals... hm, ok, that does seem likely to occur more than once on a global scale.
- op03 6y ago
  Agree we wouldn't be hearing about it if it wasn't odd. Just saying subtract out what conditions/ages in normal times occupy those beds and the odds will change. But I am too lazy to do it - https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Health-and-Social-Care/Births-Deaths-and-Conceptions/Deaths/Deaths-by-Cause https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Health-and-Social-Car... https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...