11 ms·

It's really not that hard to imagine China having more cases...

by solean 6y ago

llampx 6y ago
I watched a few videos from China and they seemed to be taking it very seriously, nothing like how the US is handling it.
Retric 6y ago
I doubt China could have kept a lid on things if the virus has been spreading uncontrollably. Further, the majority of documented cases from the peak have recovered. Which means the associated undocumented cases from then also recovered. So, while they might have had more total cases, we likely have far more active cases.
tyingq 6y ago
Or to imagine the draconian measures that limited the cases. I imagine there was a little of both.
mbrubeck 6y ago
The South China Morning Post (Hong Kong's newspaper of record) reports that China excluded 43,000 confirmed-but-asymptomatic cases from its official statistics, and kept the true number classified: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/thir... This would mean that the true number of confirmed cases in China is more than 50% higher than the official number.
- blackrock 6y ago
  Well, if your statement is correct, then this actually lowers their death rate, the CFR (Case Fatality Ratio). They reported 81,285 cases. So, 81,285 + 43,000 = 124,285 cases. And 3287 deaths. So, that’s a 2.64% death rate. At these numbers, and with the virus now worldwide, I think China’s numbers are now irrelevant. It’s better to begin focusing our energies on mitigation and containment.
  - yread 6y ago
    Estimating CFR is difficult, but it's probably still lower than that https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243373051351359488 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243373051351359488
- koheripbal 6y ago
  Not only that - China has refused to participate in an international WHO serology study to see the % of people with antibodies. ...it's not much of a leap to imagine that the reason is to hide the true number that were infected.
standardUser 6y ago
At a certain point it's not about hiding cases, it's about hiding thousands of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals, complete with temporary tent facilities we could see easily by satellite. Edit: Feel free to downvote this, but please offer an explanation as to precisely how China could be hiding an outbreak of any significant scale.
- ck2 6y ago
  It's not just China hiding deaths. There are many more deaths in the US than reported officially. Simply no testing before they die and of course none after, then they don't count it. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronaviru...
  - microtherion 6y ago
    Similar things appear to be happening in Italy: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh-idUSKBN2152V0 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... Ultimately, comparing year-over-year deaths may be a more accurate estimate than deaths of tested people.
- MikeAmelung 6y ago
  By just marking them down as general pneumonia like Russia probably is doing? This shit is NOT killing people at near the rate everyone is constantly panicking about. And if anyone was going to decide not to try to ventilate every single case, it would be China, who already released a report that in 81% of cases, they die anyway.
  - ddxxdd 6y ago
    The rate you're referring to must be (number of deaths)/(number of cases). That rate is low, but the denominator grows at astronomical speed; evidence of the high numerator is going to show up eventually.
  - standardUser 6y ago

It's really not that hard to imagine China having more cases...

by solean 6y ago

It's really not that hard to imagine China having more cases...

I watched a few videos from China and they seemed to be taking it very seriously, nothing like how the US is handling it.

Retric 6y ago

I doubt China could have kept a lid on things if the virus has been spreading uncontrollably. Further, the majority of documented cases from the peak have recovered. Which means the associated undocumented cases from then also recovered. So, while they might have had more total cases, we likely have far more active cases.

tyingq 6y ago

Or to imagine the draconian measures that limited the cases. I imagine there was a little of both.

mbrubeck 6y ago

The South China Morning Post (Hong Kong's newspaper of record) reports that China excluded 43,000 confirmed-but-asymptomatic cases from its official statistics, and kept the true number classified: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/thir... This would mean that the true number of confirmed cases in China is more than 50% higher than the official number.

blackrock 6y ago
Well, if your statement is correct, then this actually lowers their death rate, the CFR (Case Fatality Ratio). They reported 81,285 cases. So, 81,285 + 43,000 = 124,285 cases. And 3287 deaths. So, that’s a 2.64% death rate. At these numbers, and with the virus now worldwide, I think China’s numbers are now irrelevant. It’s better to begin focusing our energies on mitigation and containment.
- yread 6y ago
  Estimating CFR is difficult, but it's probably still lower than that https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243373051351359488 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243373051351359488
koheripbal 6y ago
Not only that - China has refused to participate in an international WHO serology study to see the % of people with antibodies. ...it's not much of a leap to imagine that the reason is to hide the true number that were infected.

standardUser 6y ago

At a certain point it's not about hiding cases, it's about hiding thousands of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals, complete with temporary tent facilities we could see easily by satellite. Edit: Feel free to downvote this, but please offer an explanation as to precisely how China could be hiding an outbreak of any significant scale.

ck2 6y ago
It's not just China hiding deaths. There are many more deaths in the US than reported officially. Simply no testing before they die and of course none after, then they don't count it. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronaviru...
- microtherion 6y ago
  Similar things appear to be happening in Italy: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh-idUSKBN2152V0 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... Ultimately, comparing year-over-year deaths may be a more accurate estimate than deaths of tested people.
MikeAmelung 6y ago
By just marking them down as general pneumonia like Russia probably is doing? This shit is NOT killing people at near the rate everyone is constantly panicking about. And if anyone was going to decide not to try to ventilate every single case, it would be China, who already released a report that in 81% of cases, they die anyway.
- ddxxdd 6y ago
  The rate you're referring to must be (number of deaths)/(number of cases). That rate is low, but the denominator grows at astronomical speed; evidence of the high numerator is going to show up eventually.
- standardUser 6y ago