13 ms·

US population median age is 39. Fatality rate for people under 40 is <0.2%. Fatality rate of people aged 60+ is >3.6% [1] So, no, 1.4% and 0.06% sound about ri

by simik 6y ago

US population median age is 39. Fatality rate for people under 40 is <0.2%. Fatality rate of people aged 60+ is >3.6% [1] So, no, 1.4% and 0.06% sound about right given the age difference. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

fsh 6y ago
It is impossible to calculate this from just the medians. John Ioannidis estimates a range of 0.025% to 0.625% by comparing the age distributions. However, there is so little data that any small systematic error could completely invalidate this.
JoshuaDavid 6y ago
Except that the US isn't composed of 327 million 39 year olds, it's composed of a fairly even mix of people of various ages. If you multiply the case fatality rates from your link [1] by the population in each age bracket [2], you come up with a projected CFR of about 1.8% in the US, assuming that a similar fraction of people in each age range are infected. Age | US Pop | CFR | Est Deaths if | | | 100% infected --------+--------+-------+-------------- 0 - 9 | 40.01M | 0.0% | 0.00M 10 - 19 | 41.97M | 0.2% | 0.08M 20 - 29 | 45.43M | 0.2% | 0.09M 30 - 39 | 43.63M | 0.2% | 0.09M 40 - 49 | 40.46M | 0.4% | 0.16M 50 - 59 | 42.83M | 1.3% | 0.56M 60 - 69 | 37.41M | 3.6% | 1.35M 70 - 79 | 22.66M | 8.0% | 1.81M 80+ | 12.68M | 14.8% | 1.88M --------+--------+-------+-------------- Total |327.08M | 1.8% | 6.02M 1.4% is believable with those numbers. 0.06% is not plausible at all in the context of those numbers. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...
- averros 6y ago
  You also need to take into account how a "case" of COVID-19 is defined: it's any case where the virus is detected. Doesn't even mean that the patient died from anything caused by the virus. Considering that most deaths are in people who had serious preexisting conditions (which would've likely killed them if they acquired pretty much any other infection), the actual COVID-19 CFR is bound to be significantly less.

by simik 6y ago

fsh 6y ago

It is impossible to calculate this from just the medians. John Ioannidis estimates a range of 0.025% to 0.625% by comparing the age distributions. However, there is so little data that any small systematic error could completely invalidate this.

JoshuaDavid 6y ago

Except that the US isn't composed of 327 million 39 year olds, it's composed of a fairly even mix of people of various ages. If you multiply the case fatality rates from your link [1] by the population in each age bracket [2], you come up with a projected CFR of about 1.8% in the US, assuming that a similar fraction of people in each age range are infected. Age | US Pop | CFR | Est Deaths if | | | 100% infected --------+--------+-------+-------------- 0 - 9 | 40.01M | 0.0% | 0.00M 10 - 19 | 41.97M | 0.2% | 0.08M 20 - 29 | 45.43M | 0.2% | 0.09M 30 - 39 | 43.63M | 0.2% | 0.09M 40 - 49 | 40.46M | 0.4% | 0.16M 50 - 59 | 42.83M | 1.3% | 0.56M 60 - 69 | 37.41M | 3.6% | 1.35M 70 - 79 | 22.66M | 8.0% | 1.81M 80+ | 12.68M | 14.8% | 1.88M --------+--------+-------+-------------- Total |327.08M | 1.8% | 6.02M 1.4% is believable with those numbers. 0.06% is not plausible at all in the context of those numbers. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...

averros 6y ago
You also need to take into account how a "case" of COVID-19 is defined: it's any case where the virus is detected. Doesn't even mean that the patient died from anything caused by the virus. Considering that most deaths are in people who had serious preexisting conditions (which would've likely killed them if they acquired pretty much any other infection), the actual COVID-19 CFR is bound to be significantly less.