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Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
- hello_1234 6y agoNytimes article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-coron... Some research papers from the past about SARS-CoronaVirus: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351
- fernly 6y agoFrom the abstract, I gather this is a solid "maybe, maybe not".
- perl4ever 6y agoIt seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.
- Wowfunhappy 6y agoEven if it diminishes, it won't be over—it'll come back in the fall, at which point we still won't have a vaccine. The Spanish Flu was worst the next winter...
- perl4ever 6y agoYeah, but that seems like a completely different situation. Wasn't the thing that happened then the dynamic where the sickest people were sent away from the front to the hospitals where they spread it, while the mild cases kept fighting? Also, I said "or".
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- alexanderhorl 6y agoThis is not taking into account the slowdown of spread due to containment measures.
- op03 6y agoAlso not taking into account in many parts of the world there is no such thing as Flu Season. And no one knows why.
- jwilk 6y agoCould you elaborate on that? Which parts?
- jobigoud 6y agoIt does. They are saying it won't continue at this rate for 15 weeks.
- perl4ever 6y agoEither it will A or B, where A is "slows down". How is that "not taking into account the slowdown"?
- mvanaltvorst 6y agoYou can't extrapolate the spread of viruses using an exponential function, you have to use a logistic function. Unfortunately, there isn't enough data to accurately fit a logistic function right now.
- jgalt212 6y agoTell that to the "shutdown the world people". The entire basis of this response is the exponential function.
- 2snakes 6y agoWith physical distancing, it may be exponential at first, but then taper off, like it did in Wuhan: https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632...
- perl4ever 6y agoMy mathematical intuition may not be any good, but if you are saying it will be a sigmoid type curve, would doubling the time be plausible? But this is not in disagreement with my comment, since this would involve slowing down.
- rogerthis 6y agoI'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.
- ganeshkrishnan 6y agoLikewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet
- runawaybottle 6y agoI am very confused at the shockingly low cases in India, and the Indochina region. Either it really is the climate or we’re talking zero testing and a fiasco that’s gonna engulf that region soon.
- im3w1l 6y agoMy theory about India, is that because of poor hygiene, anyone with a weak immune system already died from something else.
- op03 6y agoIt depends on travel links with Wuhan. India is somewhere below top 10 in that list.
- blackrock 6y agoPerhaps because India is not testing? If you don’t test, then you cannot confirm someone has the virus. Thus, your confirmed cases remains low. India has not shown up on the map yet, but I suspect that the virus is picking up steam. Every week, the numbers slowly increase. And by the time someone is confirmed with the virus, then they probably already infected 10 to 20 other people.
- 6y ago
- xbhdhdhd 6y agoWe in the southern hemisphere are heading into winter. Not ideal
- MR4D 6y agoHouston has high humidity, and will make it into the 90’s this week. If this is true, it should slow down here before someplace colder, right? I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not relevant.
- hello_1234 6y agoI think we should encourage people to turn off their Air Conditioners, especially in indoor places like malls and bars where people gather. ACs reduce both temperature and humidity and make a more favorable environment for the virus.
- reddit_clone 6y agoAt the very least I hope the heat/sunlight would kill the viruses quicker when someone infected coughs on a park bench or something like that..
- nikolay 6y agoHeat, cold, sun, snow, and humidity don't have any effect on the virus (according to WHO). It was spreading rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere when it was Summer there.
- sbmthakur 6y agoI think we will only have a definite answer by May/June for this question. The close cousin of nCov, the SARS Cov-1, had started retreating back in June 2003.
- matt_s 6y agoAn unscientific observation about "summer" is in the west, schools aren't in session. That might be a very large contributor to the spread of all viruses. I think there are too many variables to approach this scientifically and people won't really care how it diminishes. Just do everything possible to limit the spread while scientists formulate a vaccine of sorts. Suggesting that a seasonal change could even be considered dangerous because it may lead people to believe that containment is no longer necessary. It's only "summer" for roughly half the planet, right?