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What research papers have you seen with more optimistic projections? You're calling the projections that two governments are relying on as ill informed based on

What research papers have you seen with more optimistic projections? You're calling the projections that two governments are relying on as ill informed based on what credentials?

spookthesunset 7y ago
We don’t have enough data or understanding to project anything. Many countries stupidly aren’t doing pervasive testing. Places that do have pervasive testing (some town in Italy, South Korea, and Singapore) suggest this virus is widespread and has a >1% death rate. But this data is early and subject to change. Suggesting we are going to be locked for months or years is irresponsible fear mongering at best.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  A few times in my career, I have been in a meeting that I didn't want to be in. One of the meeting-runners hinted that the meeting could be shorter than scheduled. Failure to deliver on that was not well received. If you're going to say anything, you're better off overestimate how long it's going to be.
  - spookthesunset 7y ago
    This is what I think too. Way easier to put a date far out there and yank it back than underestimate and have to extend it.
    - ericd 7y ago
      Good. Expect to be quarantined for the next 3 months. Then you can be pleasantly surprised when it’s 2.
      - spookthesunset 7y ago
        2 weeks tops. Calling it now. 2 months of this will result in rioting and all kinds of crazy shit. And for what? The data based in SK and Singapore doesn’t suggest this virus is worth risking compete societal collapse. Testing there is showing a >1% death rate and because of how those tests work, it is provably about a half to a full order of magnitude lower. Sorry doomsayers, you better have some good evidence to suggest a 2 month lockup is worth the massive damage to our society. Better also outline what “lockup” means. Is that in big cities? The whole country? The planet? What is your exit criteria? Who will have to go out into the world to keep shelves stocked and your Uber eats meals delivered? Who is going to be manufacturing your heart medicine? Who will clean that plugged drain? Who will repair that drain unplugger persons tool when it breaks? 2 weeks tops. Perhaps slightly longer for very small isolated hotspot areas. Any more than that and shit is gonna go down.
        ericd 7y ago
        You seem like you're panicking. If you need evidence for the necessity, go read literally anything about what Italy is facing. China locked down cities with 0 infections pretty completely for ~4 weeks, and they still have isolation measures going. I believe the heavily hit cities are still totally locked down. This is what it took to get numbers under control once it had spread, and because of the US' late reaction, it's what's necessary now.
        deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
        tempestn 7y ago
        And because China reacted with extreme measures, they got the virus under control, and are now starting to reduce the restrictions, and commerce is starting back up. It's nowhere near normal, but by reacting quickly and decisively you reduce the likelihood of longer lockdowns being required in the future (as well as the likelihood of significant loss of life). This video gives a sense of the measures taken in cities outside of Wuhan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM
        7y ago
- rosybox 7y ago
  I never said "years", 2021 is in less than a year. I think you're contrarian, misinformed and in deep denial. Anyway, facts are what they are and we'll see in due time.

What research papers have you seen with more optimistic projections? You're calling the projections that two governments are relying on as ill informed based on what credentials?

spookthesunset 7y ago

We don’t have enough data or understanding to project anything. Many countries stupidly aren’t doing pervasive testing. Places that do have pervasive testing (some town in Italy, South Korea, and Singapore) suggest this virus is widespread and has a >1% death rate. But this data is early and subject to change. Suggesting we are going to be locked for months or years is irresponsible fear mongering at best.

AnimalMuppet 7y ago
A few times in my career, I have been in a meeting that I didn't want to be in. One of the meeting-runners hinted that the meeting could be shorter than scheduled. Failure to deliver on that was not well received. If you're going to say anything, you're better off overestimate how long it's going to be.
- spookthesunset 7y ago
  This is what I think too. Way easier to put a date far out there and yank it back than underestimate and have to extend it.
  - ericd 7y ago
    Good. Expect to be quarantined for the next 3 months. Then you can be pleasantly surprised when it’s 2.
    - spookthesunset 7y ago
      2 weeks tops. Calling it now. 2 months of this will result in rioting and all kinds of crazy shit. And for what? The data based in SK and Singapore doesn’t suggest this virus is worth risking compete societal collapse. Testing there is showing a >1% death rate and because of how those tests work, it is provably about a half to a full order of magnitude lower. Sorry doomsayers, you better have some good evidence to suggest a 2 month lockup is worth the massive damage to our society. Better also outline what “lockup” means. Is that in big cities? The whole country? The planet? What is your exit criteria? Who will have to go out into the world to keep shelves stocked and your Uber eats meals delivered? Who is going to be manufacturing your heart medicine? Who will clean that plugged drain? Who will repair that drain unplugger persons tool when it breaks? 2 weeks tops. Perhaps slightly longer for very small isolated hotspot areas. Any more than that and shit is gonna go down.
      - ericd 7y ago
        You seem like you're panicking. If you need evidence for the necessity, go read literally anything about what Italy is facing. China locked down cities with 0 infections pretty completely for ~4 weeks, and they still have isolation measures going. I believe the heavily hit cities are still totally locked down. This is what it took to get numbers under control once it had spread, and because of the US' late reaction, it's what's necessary now.
        deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
        tempestn 7y ago
        And because China reacted with extreme measures, they got the virus under control, and are now starting to reduce the restrictions, and commerce is starting back up. It's nowhere near normal, but by reacting quickly and decisively you reduce the likelihood of longer lockdowns being required in the future (as well as the likelihood of significant loss of life). This video gives a sense of the measures taken in cities outside of Wuhan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM
        7y ago
rosybox 7y ago
I never said "years", 2021 is in less than a year. I think you're contrarian, misinformed and in deep denial. Anyway, facts are what they are and we'll see in due time.