5 ms·

Do you have a source for the '10%-15%' value? If not, I'd encourage you to not spread FUD.

by sgslo 7y ago

vvillena 7y ago
That's the estimated percentage of people who need some form of ICU treatment due to COVID-19. If there's no more ICU beds left, it's safe to assume that the majority of people in need of ICU treatment that can't get it will die. You also have to add all the other patologies that will get affected by the lack of ICUs. All in all, 10% is a safe estimate. That's why flattening the curve is extremely important. The actual percentage in need of ICU will surely vary with time, but that's the important metric, because that's how many people will die when the health system saturates.
- Engineering-MD 7y ago
  5% needing ITU was initial estimate. In Italy it’s 10% due to an elderly population. And some on ITU would survive without ITU but it does improve chances. You make good points, I’m mostly just saying there is a high degree of uncertainty
DataWorker 7y ago
Multiple sources indicate that’s the severe percentage, and we know a bit about untreated ards. Moreover, deaths from lack of capacity will not be limited to covid cases. And many of the current non-covid icu cases may be exposed to medical staff who are not being tested (in the USA) and die that way. This is what happens in nursing facilities like Seattle.
411111111111111 7y ago
Italy is the first Nation that lost control of the virus and can't get infected into icu. Just look at their numbers for a real world example.
- T-A 7y ago
  Yes, look at their numbers: more than 5000 ICU beds (and more being added) and less than 1000 in use. https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2020/03/11/italia-coronavirus-ultime-notizie-posti-letto-intensiva/45767/ https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2020/03/11/italia-corona... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-patients-lombardy-hospitals/2020/03/12/36041dc6-63ce-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-coronaviru... https://www.newnotizie.it/2020/03/12/coronavirus-posti-letto-terapia-intensiva/ https://www.newnotizie.it/2020/03/12/coronavirus-posti-letto...
  - officialjunk 7y ago
    the ramp up isn't done, nor halfway yet, as italy hasn't reached inflection of the exponential curve yet. once the net new cases begins to steadily decrease the numbers are roughly half way to the final max.

Do you have a source for the '10%-15%' value? If not, I'd encourage you to not spread FUD.

by sgslo 7y ago

Do you have a source for the '10%-15%' value? If not, I'd encourage you to not spread FUD.

That's the estimated percentage of people who need some form of ICU treatment due to COVID-19. If there's no more ICU beds left, it's safe to assume that the majority of people in need of ICU treatment that can't get it will die. You also have to add all the other patologies that will get affected by the lack of ICUs. All in all, 10% is a safe estimate. That's why flattening the curve is extremely important. The actual percentage in need of ICU will surely vary with time, but that's the important metric, because that's how many people will die when the health system saturates.

Engineering-MD 7y ago
5% needing ITU was initial estimate. In Italy it’s 10% due to an elderly population. And some on ITU would survive without ITU but it does improve chances. You make good points, I’m mostly just saying there is a high degree of uncertainty

DataWorker 7y ago

Multiple sources indicate that’s the severe percentage, and we know a bit about untreated ards. Moreover, deaths from lack of capacity will not be limited to covid cases. And many of the current non-covid icu cases may be exposed to medical staff who are not being tested (in the USA) and die that way. This is what happens in nursing facilities like Seattle.

411111111111111 7y ago

Italy is the first Nation that lost control of the virus and can't get infected into icu. Just look at their numbers for a real world example.

T-A 7y ago
Yes, look at their numbers: more than 5000 ICU beds (and more being added) and less than 1000 in use. https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2020/03/11/italia-coronavirus-ultime-notizie-posti-letto-intensiva/45767/ https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2020/03/11/italia-corona... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-patients-lombardy-hospitals/2020/03/12/36041dc6-63ce-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-coronaviru... https://www.newnotizie.it/2020/03/12/coronavirus-posti-letto-terapia-intensiva/ https://www.newnotizie.it/2020/03/12/coronavirus-posti-letto...
- officialjunk 7y ago
  the ramp up isn't done, nor halfway yet, as italy hasn't reached inflection of the exponential curve yet. once the net new cases begins to steadily decrease the numbers are roughly half way to the final max.