5 ms·

Iran is ominously missing any cases according to this data. I guess you could say Iran is a known unknown.

throwanem 7y ago
Iran isn't represented in this dataset. Neither is Africa or New Zealand. I'm not sure what's meant to be ominous about any of this.
- rjtavares 7y ago
  We know the virus is widespread in Iran. We don't know if it is widespread in Africa or New Zealand.
  - FillardMillmore 7y ago
    So widespread in fact that it's even hitting those with high positions in the Iranian government. The most recent example being Mohammad Mir-Mohammadi, an adviser to the Ayatollah. https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-supreme-leader-khamenei-inner-circle-first-death-coronavirus-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-supreme-leader-khamenei...
  - throwanem 7y ago
    No more so in Africa or in New Zealand [1] than in Finland, which is represented in this dataset. I'm not really seeing the basis for whatever conspiracy theory the original parent comment seems like it wants to point toward, is what I'm getting at here. These are the early stages of what looks to be a pandemic of a disease at least an order of magnitude, possibly several orders of magnitude [2], more lethal than seasonal flu, which is no picnic already. Isn't that enough to be worrying about, all on its own? [1] https://coronavirus.zone https://coronavirus.zone [2] CDC headline numbers for the 2019-2020 flu season, vs. the commonly given 2% lethality guesstimate.
    - croissants 7y ago
      What do you mean "no more so than in Finland"? The link at [1] says Iran has 1501 cases and 66 deaths, while Finland has 6 cases and 0 deaths.
      - throwanem 7y ago
        I mean it's no more widespread in Africa or New Zealand, which are not represented in the genomic dataset charted here, than in Finland, which is represented. I've edited the earlier comment to clarify that, since the surrounding context evidently does not suffice on its own to do so for everyone.
    - nostromo 7y ago
      Estimates are dropping down from 2% as we discover lots of cases that were mild or asymptomatic. The New England Journal of Medicine says it may likely be considerably less than 1%: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 People should remember the context of a respiratory disease in China. 2/3rds of men smoke, and air pollution is common. Things also spread faster there as it’s densely populated with lower hygiene standards than developed countries (for example: spitting is still common in some areas).
      - jfoster 7y ago
        Suppose you're right about reasons why it spreads fast & lethally in China. How do you explain the fast spread and lethality outside China?
        Enginerrrd 7y ago
        The two "fast"'s are relative. Epidemic dynamics are likely to differ in different countries for a bunch of reasons. And, it does appear to be less lethal outside of China. That may be because healthcare systems are not yet overwhelmed, or it may be because of the smoking and pollution exposure in the different demographics. It is probably even both of those things.
  - csomar 7y ago
    Algeria/Tunisia/Egypt all have declared cases coming from foreign countries.
  - icegreentea2 7y ago
    Yes, but this dataset is essentially manually populated. Someone has to isolate coronavirus from a patient, sequence it, and then upload it to GISAID. So the question is why is it ominous that no one in Iran has isolated and uploaded a sequence?
    - skrtskrt 7y ago
      I believe they meant that it's scary that we don't have data in here from a place where we have heard the virus is both spreading quickly and having a high mortality rate. Not ominous as in any way indicative of a conspiracy or otherwise.
  - JaggedNZ 7y ago
    Here in New Zealand we are at 3 confirmed cases, one of which was an individual who recently return from Iran. There is a case that there are more yet undetected cases, but I suspect we are currently talking about dozens of people rather than "widespread" outbreak. Most of the initial testing was sent to Australia and I'm not sure what capability NZ medical labs have yet and I doubt they are sequencing much. There is a chance that the Iranian was sequenced, with media referred to a "deeper" testing protocol after initial tests where negative.
DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
seems the Iranian government can't be trusted with the information they put out there in any circumstance: https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640 https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22457840 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22457840

Iran isn't represented in this dataset. Neither is Africa or New Zealand. I'm not sure what's meant to be ominous about any of this.

rjtavares 7y ago
We know the virus is widespread in Iran. We don't know if it is widespread in Africa or New Zealand.
- FillardMillmore 7y ago
  So widespread in fact that it's even hitting those with high positions in the Iranian government. The most recent example being Mohammad Mir-Mohammadi, an adviser to the Ayatollah. https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-supreme-leader-khamenei-inner-circle-first-death-coronavirus-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-supreme-leader-khamenei...
- throwanem 7y ago
  No more so in Africa or in New Zealand [1] than in Finland, which is represented in this dataset. I'm not really seeing the basis for whatever conspiracy theory the original parent comment seems like it wants to point toward, is what I'm getting at here. These are the early stages of what looks to be a pandemic of a disease at least an order of magnitude, possibly several orders of magnitude [2], more lethal than seasonal flu, which is no picnic already. Isn't that enough to be worrying about, all on its own? [1] https://coronavirus.zone https://coronavirus.zone [2] CDC headline numbers for the 2019-2020 flu season, vs. the commonly given 2% lethality guesstimate.
  - croissants 7y ago
    What do you mean "no more so than in Finland"? The link at [1] says Iran has 1501 cases and 66 deaths, while Finland has 6 cases and 0 deaths.
    - throwanem 7y ago
      I mean it's no more widespread in Africa or New Zealand, which are not represented in the genomic dataset charted here, than in Finland, which is represented. I've edited the earlier comment to clarify that, since the surrounding context evidently does not suffice on its own to do so for everyone.
  - nostromo 7y ago
    Estimates are dropping down from 2% as we discover lots of cases that were mild or asymptomatic. The New England Journal of Medicine says it may likely be considerably less than 1%: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 People should remember the context of a respiratory disease in China. 2/3rds of men smoke, and air pollution is common. Things also spread faster there as it’s densely populated with lower hygiene standards than developed countries (for example: spitting is still common in some areas).
    - jfoster 7y ago
      Suppose you're right about reasons why it spreads fast & lethally in China. How do you explain the fast spread and lethality outside China?
      - Enginerrrd 7y ago
        The two "fast"'s are relative. Epidemic dynamics are likely to differ in different countries for a bunch of reasons. And, it does appear to be less lethal outside of China. That may be because healthcare systems are not yet overwhelmed, or it may be because of the smoking and pollution exposure in the different demographics. It is probably even both of those things.
- csomar 7y ago
  Algeria/Tunisia/Egypt all have declared cases coming from foreign countries.
- icegreentea2 7y ago
  Yes, but this dataset is essentially manually populated. Someone has to isolate coronavirus from a patient, sequence it, and then upload it to GISAID. So the question is why is it ominous that no one in Iran has isolated and uploaded a sequence?
  - skrtskrt 7y ago
    I believe they meant that it's scary that we don't have data in here from a place where we have heard the virus is both spreading quickly and having a high mortality rate. Not ominous as in any way indicative of a conspiracy or otherwise.
- JaggedNZ 7y ago
  Here in New Zealand we are at 3 confirmed cases, one of which was an individual who recently return from Iran. There is a case that there are more yet undetected cases, but I suspect we are currently talking about dozens of people rather than "widespread" outbreak. Most of the initial testing was sent to Australia and I'm not sure what capability NZ medical labs have yet and I doubt they are sequencing much. There is a chance that the Iranian was sequenced, with media referred to a "deeper" testing protocol after initial tests where negative.

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago

seems the Iranian government can't be trusted with the information they put out there in any circumstance: https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640 https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22457840 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22457840