12 ms·

I think we are dealing with black swan event. It's new disease, higly contagious and with 200 more deathly rate than flu. Since we don't know much about that di

• xvector 7y ago
  > with 200 more deathly rate than flu. Source? I've not seen any published number higher than 5%.
• dredmorbius 7y ago
  Case mortality rate for typical flu in the US/EU is about 0.05% - 0.1%. (High-consequence flu strains such as H5N1 can have case fatality rates of as much as 60%. Not all flus are created equal.) Case mortality rate for 2019-nCoV has been reported from 1% to as high as 6%, with lower values more plausible. That's a 10x to 120x greater mortality, and again, lower rates appear more likely. The high end isn't great, but is still below 200x. Key differences are that we have vaccine and curative treatment for influenza. Neither are 100%, but both are effective in many cases.
• bredren 7y ago
  I also suspect this is possible.