8 ms·

Nuclear has shown no particular inclination to come down in price whereas renewables have. It's just not cost effective without both massive implicit and expli

Nuclear has shown no particular inclination to come down in price whereas renewables have. It's just not cost effective without both massive implicit and explicit government subsidies. Renewables are cost effective now and will only become more so.

acidburnNSA 7y ago
They're cost effective when the sun is shining or wind is blowing but are strongly tied to increased high carbon fracked natural gas otherwise. When batteries are used the Energy Return on Investment drops below what's necessary to sustain industrialized civilization (around 5:1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100399 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100399
- bildung 7y ago
  Even without including cost overruns and decomissioning, wind energy costs the same per kilowatt of capacity[0,1]. And the actually produced energy as share of capacity (= the capacity factor) is way better than most think. For the nuclear plants in France it currently is just over 70%, while it is about 50% globally for offshore wind parks [2,3] [0] http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-edf-nuclear-epr/frances-edf-expects-six-new-nuclear-reactors-to-cost-46-billion-euros-le-monde-idUSKBN1XJ074 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-edf-nuclear-epr/frances-e... [2] http://css.umich.edu/factsheets/wind-energy-factsheet http://css.umich.edu/factsheets/wind-energy-factsheet [3] https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf/20170912wnisr2017-en-lr.pdf https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf/20170912wnisr2017... Edit: Changed phrasing because it apparently sounded like the 50% capacity factor also referred to France.
  - hokkos 7y ago
    You are completely wrong on your numbers, in France in 2018 nuclear has a capacity factor of 71% and wind of 21,1% https://bilan-electrique-2018.rte-france.com/eolien/ https://bilan-electrique-2018.rte-france.com/eolien/ Also there is currently no offshore wind park, as only offshore would approach the 50% capacity factor, but they won't, they will be in the 43% as estimated by renewables.ninja The price of the MWh of offsore park will be from 44 to 150€/MWh, where EDF is forced to sell its nuclear at 42€/MWh, average price of wind in 2020 93€/MWh.
    - kragen 7y ago
      It sounds like you confirmed their nuclear capacity factor ("just over 70%") and pointed out that French wind farms have a lower capacity factor (21.1%) than wind farms on average. I don't think that constitutes evidence that they are "completely wrong on [their] numbers".
      - hokkos 7y ago
        Price and capacity factor where completely wrong for wind, also current wind subsidies are about 93€/MWh.
        kragen 7y ago
        They were citing worldwide capacity factors and prices for wind, not French ones, which I agree are much worse.
        hokkos 7y ago
        That was not obvious, it was written like a French nuclear with French wind comparison. And also that is misleading because comparing the low capacity factor of French nuclear because it is used for load following and curtailed in summer because it is scaled for winter usage using restive heating. And comparing it to offshore with intermittent power, not dispatchable in the best location, does not make sense. With penetration wind will also be curtailed, and is already happening in china and Germany.
        bildung 7y ago
        Let's look at actual and current numbers for construction costs, ignoring subsidies: Wind: "The costs for a utility scale wind turbine range from about $1.3 million to $2.2 million per MW of nameplate capacity installed." http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost Nuclear: " Companies that are planning new nuclear units are currently indicating that the total costs (including escalation and financing costs) will be in the range of $5,500/kW to $8,100/kW or between $6 billion and $9 billion for each 1,100 MW plant." https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/SynapsePaper.2008-07.0.Nuclear-Plant-Construction-Costs.A0022_0.pdf https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/SynapsePa...

acidburnNSA 7y ago

They're cost effective when the sun is shining or wind is blowing but are strongly tied to increased high carbon fracked natural gas otherwise. When batteries are used the Energy Return on Investment drops below what's necessary to sustain industrialized civilization (around 5:1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100399 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100399

bildung 7y ago
Even without including cost overruns and decomissioning, wind energy costs the same per kilowatt of capacity[0,1]. And the actually produced energy as share of capacity (= the capacity factor) is way better than most think. For the nuclear plants in France it currently is just over 70%, while it is about 50% globally for offshore wind parks [2,3] [0] http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-edf-nuclear-epr/frances-edf-expects-six-new-nuclear-reactors-to-cost-46-billion-euros-le-monde-idUSKBN1XJ074 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-edf-nuclear-epr/frances-e... [2] http://css.umich.edu/factsheets/wind-energy-factsheet http://css.umich.edu/factsheets/wind-energy-factsheet [3] https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf/20170912wnisr2017-en-lr.pdf https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf/20170912wnisr2017... Edit: Changed phrasing because it apparently sounded like the 50% capacity factor also referred to France.
- hokkos 7y ago
  You are completely wrong on your numbers, in France in 2018 nuclear has a capacity factor of 71% and wind of 21,1% https://bilan-electrique-2018.rte-france.com/eolien/ https://bilan-electrique-2018.rte-france.com/eolien/ Also there is currently no offshore wind park, as only offshore would approach the 50% capacity factor, but they won't, they will be in the 43% as estimated by renewables.ninja The price of the MWh of offsore park will be from 44 to 150€/MWh, where EDF is forced to sell its nuclear at 42€/MWh, average price of wind in 2020 93€/MWh.
  - kragen 7y ago
    It sounds like you confirmed their nuclear capacity factor ("just over 70%") and pointed out that French wind farms have a lower capacity factor (21.1%) than wind farms on average. I don't think that constitutes evidence that they are "completely wrong on [their] numbers".
    - hokkos 7y ago
      Price and capacity factor where completely wrong for wind, also current wind subsidies are about 93€/MWh.
      - kragen 7y ago
        They were citing worldwide capacity factors and prices for wind, not French ones, which I agree are much worse.
        hokkos 7y ago
        That was not obvious, it was written like a French nuclear with French wind comparison. And also that is misleading because comparing the low capacity factor of French nuclear because it is used for load following and curtailed in summer because it is scaled for winter usage using restive heating. And comparing it to offshore with intermittent power, not dispatchable in the best location, does not make sense. With penetration wind will also be curtailed, and is already happening in china and Germany.
      - bildung 7y ago
        Let's look at actual and current numbers for construction costs, ignoring subsidies: Wind: "The costs for a utility scale wind turbine range from about $1.3 million to $2.2 million per MW of nameplate capacity installed." http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost Nuclear: " Companies that are planning new nuclear units are currently indicating that the total costs (including escalation and financing costs) will be in the range of $5,500/kW to $8,100/kW or between $6 billion and $9 billion for each 1,100 MW plant." https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/SynapsePaper.2008-07.0.Nuclear-Plant-Construction-Costs.A0022_0.pdf https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/SynapsePa...