6 ms·

Is anyone aware of any compelling evidence that these fires were meaningfully worsened by climate change?

XorNot 7y ago
You mean like how this year is the latest in a long run of parts of the country breaking temperature records year round, as well the general uptick in mean-surface temperature since 1950 - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2018/#tabs=Temperature http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2018/#tabs=... ? Or that we're in one of the longest droughts on record, with many rural towns prior to this (and still actively) running out of water (as in, no water in the pipes at all), and Sydney on water-restrictions? Mysteriously, Australia has been having a multi-decadal run of consistently seeing the factors which would be worsened by global warming, get worse.
nl 7y ago
What would you consider as compelling evidence? Predictions made 10 years ago are now being met.
- hyperdunc 7y ago
  Some predictions are being met. The ones that aren't are generally forgotten.
  - nl 7y ago
    Fire seasons are getting longer because of climate change. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/drought-bushfire-seasons-starting-earlier-lasting-longer/10132570 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/drought-bushfire-seas... (note that this is before the current bushfires) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867 Droughts are getting worse because of climate change (and of course in Australia droughts make bushfires worse because there is more dry scrub, and hazard reduction burns are too dangerous to do). https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/water-resources-minister-totally-accepts-drought-linked-to-climate-change https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/water-re...
    - gd1 7y ago
      >Droughts are getting worse because of climate change Prove it. Not with some Guardian article. Go to the BOM and show me a timeseries: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Drain%26area%3Daus%26season%3D0112%26ave_yr%3D10 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracke...
    - nl 7y ago
      Hey gd1, your comment is dead so I can't reply. But here is your BOM citation (it also has your requested timeseries data): Australia's driest year on record Nationally-averaged rainfall 40% below average for the year at 277.6 mm The national total rainfall for 2019 was 40% below the 1961–1990 average at 277.6 mm (the 1961–1990 average is 465.2 mm). This makes 2019 the driest year in the 119 years since 1900. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Rainfall http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Rainf...
- gd1 7y ago
  I too can predict that there will be bushfires in Australia.

You mean like how this year is the latest in a long run of parts of the country breaking temperature records year round, as well the general uptick in mean-surface temperature since 1950 - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2018/#tabs=Temperature http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2018/#tabs=... ? Or that we're in one of the longest droughts on record, with many rural towns prior to this (and still actively) running out of water (as in, no water in the pipes at all), and Sydney on water-restrictions? Mysteriously, Australia has been having a multi-decadal run of consistently seeing the factors which would be worsened by global warming, get worse.

nl 7y ago

What would you consider as compelling evidence? Predictions made 10 years ago are now being met.

hyperdunc 7y ago
Some predictions are being met. The ones that aren't are generally forgotten.
- nl 7y ago
  Fire seasons are getting longer because of climate change. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/drought-bushfire-seasons-starting-earlier-lasting-longer/10132570 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/drought-bushfire-seas... (note that this is before the current bushfires) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26172867 Droughts are getting worse because of climate change (and of course in Australia droughts make bushfires worse because there is more dry scrub, and hazard reduction burns are too dangerous to do). https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/water-resources-minister-totally-accepts-drought-linked-to-climate-change https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/water-re...
  - gd1 7y ago
    >Droughts are getting worse because of climate change Prove it. Not with some Guardian article. Go to the BOM and show me a timeseries: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Drain%26area%3Daus%26season%3D0112%26ave_yr%3D10 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracke...
  - nl 7y ago
    Hey gd1, your comment is dead so I can't reply. But here is your BOM citation (it also has your requested timeseries data): Australia's driest year on record Nationally-averaged rainfall 40% below average for the year at 277.6 mm The national total rainfall for 2019 was 40% below the 1961–1990 average at 277.6 mm (the 1961–1990 average is 465.2 mm). This makes 2019 the driest year in the 119 years since 1900. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Rainfall http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Rainf...
gd1 7y ago
I too can predict that there will be bushfires in Australia.