8 ms·
NSR has some public estimates here: https://www.nsr.com/leo-survival-of-the-fittestor-the-smartest/ https://www.nsr.com/leo-survival-of-the-fittestor-the-smarte
by portillo 7y ago
NSR has some public estimates here:
https://www.nsr.com/leo-survival-of-the-fittestor-the-smartest/ https://www.nsr.com/leo-survival-of-the-fittestor-the-smarte...
NSR estimates for SpaceX are higher than what SpaceX claims (Gwynne Shotwell just claimed some Morgan Stanley estimates of $1M launch + $1M to be way off [1]), but still, I wouldn't expect them to be able to launch the 4,409 satellites of their intial design for less than $10B. And it's not clear that they will be able to raise such amount of money without a clear path towards profitability.
I agree with the shaklee3, Tim's blog is very legit. As full disclosure, I am the first author of the MIT study he mentioned, and the more I look into LEO mega-constellations, the more skeptical I become.
[1] https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1187745445361180672?lang=en https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/11877454453611806...
- ericd 7y agoThanks! Why do you become more and more skeptical? Is there some fundamental reason they won't be competitive?