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LOL. The article completely ignores that today's 40-somethings will be 60-something 20 years from now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_St

LOL. The article completely ignores that today's 40-somethings will be 60-something 20 years from now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#/media/File:Uspop.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_State... edit: Seeing the flood of downvotes I'll give some data. Home ownership increases with age. 60+ers leaving their homes from death, poor health or inconvenience will be supplemented by today's 40+ers over the next 20 years. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/08/homeownership-by-age.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/08/homeownership... . We were in the same situation 20 years ago, 21 years ago, 22 years ago, and so on.

boomboomsubban 7y ago
Does that somehow change how many current 60 year olds will be moving out of their house in the next twenty years? A demographic change isn't what's being discussed.
- pg_is_a_butt 7y ago
  OK, boomboomer. whooooooooosh.
flyGuyOnTheSly 7y ago
40 somethings are not baby boomers... boomers are in their late 50s to early 70s right now. [0] The baby boom happened after world war II ended in 1945 which was 74 years ago. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers
- drivingmenuts 7y ago
  40-somethings are Gen-Xers. We've been raised on the idea of an unstoppable grim-meathook future. We don't want that, but we're powerless to stop it.
  - flyGuyOnTheSly 7y ago
    >the idea of an unstoppable grim-meathook future. As a millennial... what does that mean?
gleenn 7y ago
The point is that there is a surge of baby-boomers who will die and the number of people younger than them are a significantly smaller group, so there will in fact be a surge in available housing.
- s1artibartfast 7y ago
  I thought so as well, but it simply isn't true. Total number of folks in their 60s will continue to grow. Today, there are ~77 million Americans over 60. In 2040, there will be ~100 million Americans over 60. You can play with the numbers here. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2040/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...
  - glofish 7y ago
    This argument is missing the point - the questions is not how many people will be of age X in 2040. It is about how many homes will be released due to owners passing away in 2020 vs 2040. The very fact that there will be more older people in 2040 also contributes to getting more homes released. What the statistics does not even consider is what happens if we manage to extend life, even by say 10 years. A completely different picture emerges where homes get even more expensive.
  - notacoward 7y ago
    "In 60s" and "over 60" are not the same thing. That's playing a little too fast and loose with the statistics for my taste.
    - s1artibartfast 7y ago
      Sorry for any confusion, I looked at the numbers both ways. As posted elsewhere: There are 37.5 million folks in their 60s now. There will be 40 million folks in their 60s in 2030. There will be 39 million folks in their 60s in 2040.
- madengr 7y ago
  There are as many millennials as boomers, whereas gen X is about 10 million less than either group. I’d like to know what they are going to do with all the old-folks homes that are going up.
Spooky23 7y ago
It’s very different. I’m fortunate to be in a good place from a retirement perspective, but at this point my parents had made a 10x return on their home that they purchased in late 70s NYC, plus a legacy pension, plus a retirement healthcare. Most of the housing wealth will be eaten up by health costs. With families moving away and people retiring to alternate locales, property wealth will be seized and sold off by the county to pay for Medicaid. Many of the folks in our field are doing great, but tech is boom/bust and people are making way too much money now.
- tuesdayrain 7y ago
  A 10x return on something bought in the 70s is very poor in comparison to the stock market which will double your money roughly every 7-10 years.
- matheweis 7y ago
  > Most of the housing wealth will be eaten up by health costs Unless the home is somehow stripped down or otherwise damaged, the intrinsic value of the housing wealth will not change; it just is owned by a different entity.
s1artibartfast 7y ago
I was skeptical at first, but you are right Today, there are ~77 million Americans over 60. In 2040, there will be ~100 million Americans over 60.
- qqqwerty 7y ago
  The issue is not in 2040, it's between now and 2040. For example, the current population in the 40-45 age range is nearly 2 million less than the 55-59 range. So sometime between now and 2040 (probably around 2030) we are going to see a decrease in the number of newly retired individuals. By 2040, the first wave of millennials will start retiring, which should make the 'silver tsunami' less of an issue.
  - s1artibartfast 7y ago
    I agree there will be a small peak, but there is no cliff on the other side. 5 years is a pretty small range to look at 10 years you get the following: There are 37.5 million folks in their 60s now. There will be 40 million folks in their 60s in 2030 there will be 39 million folks in their 60s in 2040.
zacharycohn 7y ago
But people who are 40 now have different priorities and tend to want to live in different places than 60 year olds did 20 years ago.
- tapatio 7y ago
  Nope. Everyone still wants to live in coastal Southern California.
filesystemdude 7y ago
The point is the flood of the market with these folks' homes. If there's demand because of a new set of people come by them, that doesn't negate a rise in available properties from which they may select. Real estate companies make money from the _churn_ of the market, not whether there are too many or too few houses to meet demand.
imtringued 7y ago
Why do demographics matter? It's completely missing the point. The only thing that matters is that the population is still growing and therefore there will be no housing shortage.
- smileysteve 7y ago
  The us birth rate is at a 32 year low, less than 2 for nearly a decade. Combining with an increasing middle age mortality rate via suicide, opiods, and obesity (including diabetes) https://www.npr.org/2019/05/15/723518379/u-s-births-fell-to-a-32-year-low-in-2018-cdc-says-birthrate-is-at-record-level https://www.npr.org/2019/05/15/723518379/u-s-births-fell-to-...
  - tapatio 7y ago
    Meh, we can just increase the number of refugees we accept. Germany just did this.

boomboomsubban 7y ago

Does that somehow change how many current 60 year olds will be moving out of their house in the next twenty years? A demographic change isn't what's being discussed.

pg_is_a_butt 7y ago
OK, boomboomer. whooooooooosh.

flyGuyOnTheSly 7y ago

40 somethings are not baby boomers... boomers are in their late 50s to early 70s right now. [0] The baby boom happened after world war II ended in 1945 which was 74 years ago. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers

drivingmenuts 7y ago
40-somethings are Gen-Xers. We've been raised on the idea of an unstoppable grim-meathook future. We don't want that, but we're powerless to stop it.
- flyGuyOnTheSly 7y ago
  >the idea of an unstoppable grim-meathook future. As a millennial... what does that mean?

gleenn 7y ago

The point is that there is a surge of baby-boomers who will die and the number of people younger than them are a significantly smaller group, so there will in fact be a surge in available housing.

s1artibartfast 7y ago
I thought so as well, but it simply isn't true. Total number of folks in their 60s will continue to grow. Today, there are ~77 million Americans over 60. In 2040, there will be ~100 million Americans over 60. You can play with the numbers here. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2040/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...
- glofish 7y ago
  This argument is missing the point - the questions is not how many people will be of age X in 2040. It is about how many homes will be released due to owners passing away in 2020 vs 2040. The very fact that there will be more older people in 2040 also contributes to getting more homes released. What the statistics does not even consider is what happens if we manage to extend life, even by say 10 years. A completely different picture emerges where homes get even more expensive.
- notacoward 7y ago
  "In 60s" and "over 60" are not the same thing. That's playing a little too fast and loose with the statistics for my taste.
  - s1artibartfast 7y ago
    Sorry for any confusion, I looked at the numbers both ways. As posted elsewhere: There are 37.5 million folks in their 60s now. There will be 40 million folks in their 60s in 2030. There will be 39 million folks in their 60s in 2040.
madengr 7y ago
There are as many millennials as boomers, whereas gen X is about 10 million less than either group. I’d like to know what they are going to do with all the old-folks homes that are going up.

Spooky23 7y ago

It’s very different. I’m fortunate to be in a good place from a retirement perspective, but at this point my parents had made a 10x return on their home that they purchased in late 70s NYC, plus a legacy pension, plus a retirement healthcare. Most of the housing wealth will be eaten up by health costs. With families moving away and people retiring to alternate locales, property wealth will be seized and sold off by the county to pay for Medicaid. Many of the folks in our field are doing great, but tech is boom/bust and people are making way too much money now.

tuesdayrain 7y ago
A 10x return on something bought in the 70s is very poor in comparison to the stock market which will double your money roughly every 7-10 years.
matheweis 7y ago
> Most of the housing wealth will be eaten up by health costs Unless the home is somehow stripped down or otherwise damaged, the intrinsic value of the housing wealth will not change; it just is owned by a different entity.

s1artibartfast 7y ago

I was skeptical at first, but you are right Today, there are ~77 million Americans over 60. In 2040, there will be ~100 million Americans over 60.

qqqwerty 7y ago
The issue is not in 2040, it's between now and 2040. For example, the current population in the 40-45 age range is nearly 2 million less than the 55-59 range. So sometime between now and 2040 (probably around 2030) we are going to see a decrease in the number of newly retired individuals. By 2040, the first wave of millennials will start retiring, which should make the 'silver tsunami' less of an issue.
- s1artibartfast 7y ago
  I agree there will be a small peak, but there is no cliff on the other side. 5 years is a pretty small range to look at 10 years you get the following: There are 37.5 million folks in their 60s now. There will be 40 million folks in their 60s in 2030 there will be 39 million folks in their 60s in 2040.

zacharycohn 7y ago

But people who are 40 now have different priorities and tend to want to live in different places than 60 year olds did 20 years ago.

tapatio 7y ago
Nope. Everyone still wants to live in coastal Southern California.

filesystemdude 7y ago

The point is the flood of the market with these folks' homes. If there's demand because of a new set of people come by them, that doesn't negate a rise in available properties from which they may select. Real estate companies make money from the _churn_ of the market, not whether there are too many or too few houses to meet demand.

imtringued 7y ago

Why do demographics matter? It's completely missing the point. The only thing that matters is that the population is still growing and therefore there will be no housing shortage.

smileysteve 7y ago
The us birth rate is at a 32 year low, less than 2 for nearly a decade. Combining with an increasing middle age mortality rate via suicide, opiods, and obesity (including diabetes) https://www.npr.org/2019/05/15/723518379/u-s-births-fell-to-a-32-year-low-in-2018-cdc-says-birthrate-is-at-record-level https://www.npr.org/2019/05/15/723518379/u-s-births-fell-to-...
- tapatio 7y ago
  Meh, we can just increase the number of refugees we accept. Germany just did this.