7 ms·
In my career I have estimated a lot of project. I tried different techniques and I find https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique ht
by robsun 7y ago
In my career I have estimated a lot of project. I tried different techniques and I find https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_... is the most accurate one.
If I was asked to give some hints, I would say:
- in optimistic and pessimistic cases don't fear to use extreme values
- don't estimate on your own, take reasonable amount of developers with variety of experiences
- don't give exact value to client, give probabilities ("it is very likely that we will be deliver this in between X and Y man-hours/days)
All estimates I made using PERT were quite accurate (<5% time difference between estimated and real execution)
- mitchtbaum 7y agoYes. I was about to link this too. From my experiences, I've found that 3x my initial "estimate / goal / ego trip timeline" gives the most realistic picture. Sometimes I can hit my best; most often things come up. It took a little while to accept, mostly because I wanted to do my best always and be able to promise and fulfill it. But Reality hit back, and I had to adjust. It's hard to see the network effects of each micro-interaction in long range projecting, but once you really break down how long each thing could take, how that would affect each other related part, and who/what else is involved at each step/layer, it clears up the fog. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fog_of_war#Military https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fog_of_war#Military