5 ms·
The fact that the math here is wrong is quite concerning. Probabilities are not additive - 1 in 6 dice rolls will produce a 5, it doesn't mean if I roll 6 times
by kchamplewski 7y ago
The fact that the math here is wrong is quite concerning. Probabilities are not additive - 1 in 6 dice rolls will produce a 5, it doesn't mean if I roll 6 times I am guaranteed a 5.
- Someone 7y agoFor small probabilities, approximating (1-p)^n by 1 - n × x is absolutely fine. For example (1-0.00002)^5 = 0.999900004 Rounding gives you that “one in 10,000”
- caf 7y agoAdding the probabilities is a good enough approximation when the probabilities and number of trials are very low, though - as in this case. The true value for at least one failure in 5 trials with an individual 1/50000 probability of failure is 1/10000.4 rather than 1/10000, but it seems clear that the original 1/50000 isn't that precise anyway.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]