5 ms·

The Drake Equation is perfectly reasonable. You just have to interpret it as “these assumptions imply aliens” rather than “there are definitely aliens.”

• bnegreve 7y ago
  It is not, because at least 3 factors of the equation are incredibly difficult to estimate. About as difficult as estimating the probability of an alien encounter. So the equation is basically useless.
  • mikeash 7y ago
    And what’s the term for a figure that’s hard to estimate but which you guess at anyway? An “assumption.”
    • bnegreve 7y ago
      Yes, and in this case, an unreasonable one.