6 ms·

Just to put it in perspective, the same model of EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) being build at Flamanville in France is 10 years late (x3 vs 5 years initial

by ekingr 7y ago

Just to put it in perspective, the same model of EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) being build at Flamanville in France is 10 years late (x3 vs 5 years initial estimate) and €8bn over budget (x3.5 vs €3bn initial budget). The Finnish one is also massively struggling. Fortunately the Chinese ones in Taishan were delivered quite on time & budget this year. It's sad to see all these issues with execution, doing a bad press for nuclear - while we really need more of it to decarbonize our electricity (at least in the mid-term).

gridlockd 7y ago
My theory is that companies in the west don't have much of an incentive to actually build plants to completion, so they don't. In this political climate, it is unlikely that another reactor will ever be commissioned, operating a plant is an ongoing risk that can be avoided by never even going online. Might as well keep the paychecks for everyone coming for a while, then sail smoothly into inevitable bankruptcy.
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  “In this political climate, it is unlikely that another reactor will ever be commissioned” That’s nonsense, the UK is right in the middle of commissioning 5-10 new nuclear reactors, if Areva/EDF could demonstrate an ability to build these plants on budget there’s a huge market opportunity.
  - gridlockd 7y ago
    > That’s nonsense, the UK is right in the middle of commissioning 5-10 new nuclear reactors, ... I'm not talking about the reactors that already have been or will be commissioned soon. I'm talking about the situation in 10 years when these reactors are supposed to be finished. Let's see what the situation is like today: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_nuclear_power_stations_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_nuclear_power_station... Hinkley B - under construction, way over budget already Oldbury and Wylfa Newydd - shelved Moorside - failed Bradwell B - Chinese venture That leaves Sizewell C, to be completed in 2031. That's just a not a good trend for western companies. > ...if Areva/EDF could demonstrate an ability to build these plants on budget there’s a huge market opportunity. If private companies need to be dragged in with tons of incentives just to get involved, that doesn't sound like a great opportunity at all.
- Tade0 7y ago
  This reminds me of what my friend once said about a failed project he was in: The worst thing that happened to this project was that it went to production. Had it not come to pass everything would be fine.
tempguy9999 7y ago
> Fortunately the Chinese ones in Taishan were delivered quite on time & budget this year. Or reported to have been. How much can we trust they were, and that huge corners weren't cut. I don't like to be cynical but all in china seems to be propaganda. For example from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/25/chinese-rail-crash-cover-up-claims https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/25/chinese-rail-c... But Hong Kong University's China Media Project said propaganda authorities have ordered media not to send reporters to the scene, not to report too frequently and not to link the story to high-speed rail development. "There must be no seeking after the causes [of the accident], rather, statements from authoritative departments must be followed," said one directive. Another ordered: "No calling into doubt, no development [of further issues], no speculation, and no dissemination [of such things] on personal microblogs!" The whole story is worse. Difficult not to be cynical. I've also heard that one of China's largest nuke stations was built dead on a seismic fault which could produce a known acceleration of n, but the station was designed to deal with n/3 acceleration. This is from memory and I can't find the original, so pinch-of-salt mode please.
Merrill 7y ago
The Chinese are also able to build high-speed rail systems, while the US is not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail Also consider continued spending on projects to send men to orbit/Moon/Mars etc, but which never seem to actually get anyone anywhere and are reprogrammed and rescheduled every few years. Then there is the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, first started in 2005, keel laid in 2009, launched in 2013, expected to be deployed in 2020 once all the bugs are worked out of things like the electric elevators. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Gerald_R._Ford https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Gerald_R._Ford

by ekingr 7y ago

gridlockd 7y ago

My theory is that companies in the west don't have much of an incentive to actually build plants to completion, so they don't. In this political climate, it is unlikely that another reactor will ever be commissioned, operating a plant is an ongoing risk that can be avoided by never even going online. Might as well keep the paychecks for everyone coming for a while, then sail smoothly into inevitable bankruptcy.

Brakenshire 7y ago
“In this political climate, it is unlikely that another reactor will ever be commissioned” That’s nonsense, the UK is right in the middle of commissioning 5-10 new nuclear reactors, if Areva/EDF could demonstrate an ability to build these plants on budget there’s a huge market opportunity.
- gridlockd 7y ago
  > That’s nonsense, the UK is right in the middle of commissioning 5-10 new nuclear reactors, ... I'm not talking about the reactors that already have been or will be commissioned soon. I'm talking about the situation in 10 years when these reactors are supposed to be finished. Let's see what the situation is like today: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_nuclear_power_stations_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_nuclear_power_station... Hinkley B - under construction, way over budget already Oldbury and Wylfa Newydd - shelved Moorside - failed Bradwell B - Chinese venture That leaves Sizewell C, to be completed in 2031. That's just a not a good trend for western companies. > ...if Areva/EDF could demonstrate an ability to build these plants on budget there’s a huge market opportunity. If private companies need to be dragged in with tons of incentives just to get involved, that doesn't sound like a great opportunity at all.
Tade0 7y ago
This reminds me of what my friend once said about a failed project he was in: The worst thing that happened to this project was that it went to production. Had it not come to pass everything would be fine.

tempguy9999 7y ago

> Fortunately the Chinese ones in Taishan were delivered quite on time & budget this year. Or reported to have been. How much can we trust they were, and that huge corners weren't cut. I don't like to be cynical but all in china seems to be propaganda. For example from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/25/chinese-rail-crash-cover-up-claims https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/25/chinese-rail-c... But Hong Kong University's China Media Project said propaganda authorities have ordered media not to send reporters to the scene, not to report too frequently and not to link the story to high-speed rail development. "There must be no seeking after the causes [of the accident], rather, statements from authoritative departments must be followed," said one directive. Another ordered: "No calling into doubt, no development [of further issues], no speculation, and no dissemination [of such things] on personal microblogs!" The whole story is worse. Difficult not to be cynical. I've also heard that one of China's largest nuke stations was built dead on a seismic fault which could produce a known acceleration of n, but the station was designed to deal with n/3 acceleration. This is from memory and I can't find the original, so pinch-of-salt mode please.

Merrill 7y ago

The Chinese are also able to build high-speed rail systems, while the US is not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail Also consider continued spending on projects to send men to orbit/Moon/Mars etc, but which never seem to actually get anyone anywhere and are reprogrammed and rescheduled every few years. Then there is the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, first started in 2005, keel laid in 2009, launched in 2013, expected to be deployed in 2020 once all the bugs are worked out of things like the electric elevators. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Gerald_R._Ford https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Gerald_R._Ford