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"huge marketing campaign advertising a car that doesn't exist" Perhaps they are trying to gauge the likely success of the car before some final production deci

"huge marketing campaign advertising a car that doesn't exist" Perhaps they are trying to gauge the likely success of the car before some final production decisions are made. You do have to wonder how Tesla is going to survive the first surge of practical mass-market electric cars. They definitely are riding some sort of tiger while trying to build out marketshare, technology, infrastructure. My money is on Toyota but would be thrilled to be wrong.

sxates 7y ago
Tesla will be fine, for several reasons: 1. They're way ahead of everyone else in terms of energy efficiency. Compare a Model S or X to the Jaguar iPace or Audi e-tron - the Tesla gets 30-50% more range out of the same size battery. That's a big gap. 2. Super chargers - other manufacturers have to rely on really spotty networks of third-party charging stations that are unreliable, and add friction for their customers (have to have the right card and the right connector, etc.). Teslas super chargers are in all the right places, are stupid easy to use, and always work. 3. Tesla actually wants to sell EVs. The other manufacturers are hamstrung with their legacy product groups. They're just dipping their toes in the water trying to figure out how to make the transition without 'Osborning' themselves, or doing the minimum to satisfy California regulations. Tesla is all-in and innovating at a much faster pace.
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > Tesla will be fine, for several reasons Tesla will be fine as a niche manufacturer. Jaguar's been around for a long time and they've always been a low volume manufacturer. Tesla can be the same. > 1. They're way ahead of everyone else in terms of energy efficiency. The Hyundai Kona, Kia Niro EV, and the Kia Soul EV all achieve good range at a lower price point than Tesla offers. > 2. Super chargers - other manufacturers have to rely on really spotty networks of third-party charging stations that are unreliable Ionity in Europe is a joint venture between many manufacturers. Hyundai just recently joined: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/hyundai-kia-ionity-electric-car-charging/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/hyundai-kia-ionity-electr... Electrify America, EVgo, and ChargePoint now have roaming agreements which simplify charging for their users and makes the separate CCS networks act more like one large CCS network: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-charging-station/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-ch... Mercedes in Europe has agreements with the European charging networks to allow all charging billing to be done through the owner's Mercedes Me account. At this point it would be much better if Tesla switched their chargers and cars to CCS instead of persisting with a proprietary plug. If Tesla is interested in promoting EV usage (which they claim is their mission) then they will also allow all EVs to charge at their chargers, just like Teslas can charge at CCS chargers today. > 3. Tesla actually wants to sell EVs. Volkswagen has invested more money into EVs than anyone: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insight-idUSKCN1PV0K4 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insig...
  - novok 7y ago
    Really? The gap isn’t that much, about $2200 looking at a before subsidy price. And the interior of the korean EVS are pretty cheap compared to the model 3, so if tesla wanted to they could make a tesla that uses cheap materials and doesn’t ship with special sensors. Call it the model 1. What holds me back is more a unknown / bad record of reliability with tesla and a lack of charging infrastructure in apartments for me.
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      > so if tesla wanted to they could make a tesla that uses cheap materials and doesn’t ship with special sensors. Call it the model 1. Could they? So why don't they? The 35k Model 3 didn't go too well. Why will this Model 1 do better for Tesla? It's difficult to target multiple segments simultaneously. You need the scale of a company like Volkswagen to do it successfully. Tesla is headed for a decision point on the kind of car company they want to be. They'll probably choose to stay low volume: https://www.thedrive.com/tech/29960/teslas-hero-cycle-leads-to-nrburgring-confrontation-with-itself https://www.thedrive.com/tech/29960/teslas-hero-cycle-leads-...
      - novok 7y ago
        The reason why is because they were not targeting creating a low end bog standard plastic cheap car that the kona represents for the model 3. The cabin differences would have to be too big to deliver it as a trim. Technologically I would see the model 1 being mostly the same platform as the model 3 with a cabin expressly designed for cheapness everywhere. So standard handles, standard ac, a 2 din stereo, everything plastic, only mirrors and cloth and no power seats. Kind of like the iphone xr with aluminum and an LCD. Make a platform variation is not that difficult. That would make it bridge the gap and probably beat the kona price wise
        clouddrover 7y ago
        > The cabin differences would have to be too big to deliver it as a trim. So it's too difficult for Tesla to deliver. You agree with me: Hyundai's got Tesla beat on range at the price point. > That would make it bridge the gap and probably beat the kona price wise "Probably" is not a practical reality. The car you're talking about doesn't exist. The Kona EV, the Niro EV, and the Soul EV do exist. Hyundai is ahead here.
jillesvangurp 7y ago
Toyota and BMW both are dragging their heels with EVs and are mostly focusing on hybrids and hydrogen. IMHO both are a dead end and an expensive mistake. Battery prices and range are on track to improve for the foreseeable future and most other manufacturers are basically preparing to massively increase production of the dozens of EVs they announced in the next few years. There are very few manufacturers left that are not fully committed to EVs at this point. Toyota, Mazda, BMW, Fiat, and a few others basically. BMW already is signalling they expect issues with market share, growth, profit etc. and just appointed a new CEO to fix this. In other words, they are late to this game, they know it, and are now acting to fix this. I know less about Toyota but they seem to be very stubbornly ignoring battery EVs so far. IMHO that signals long term trouble for them as well. Unless they find a way to catch up in a hurry. Either way, they are late and the rest of the industry is not waiting for them. IMHO Nissan and Honda, are in much better shape. For most manufacturers the key game the next ten years is going to be securing availability of low cost batteries with decent range while balancing that cost with the absolute massive cost of dismantling their legacy manufacturing and supply industry. I expect layoffs directly related to that in Germany may affect tens of thousands or possibly hundreds of thousands of jobs across the thousands of companies that make up the car industry and their suppliers over the next decade. BMW just announced layoffs for 6000 in Germany. My guess is that won't be the last time. Tesla is where they are in the market right now because they decided years ago to produce battery packs in house and recently to also start producing their own battery cells. That gives them a cost and technical advantage. They have no legacy business and every penny that comes in is invested in more production capacity, lowering cost, and improving technology. VW is investing tens of billions to catch up in the next few years. IMHO this is exactly the right thing to do for them and I think Dieselgate helped speed up the decision making. The ID.3 is an important milestone for them and when they start shipping this in volume in a few years, it will no doubt affect the rest of the industry. They are already talking about Id.4 and my guess is they are not stopping there. I think there's a good chance they might wipe out or flat out absorb a few of their competitors in the process. BMW for example. Meanwhile Tesla has at least five years and probably closer to ten years where they are basically enjoying volume and cost advantages essentially unchallenged. I'd be surprised if they don't establish themselves as one of the top car manufacturers during that time.
- 7y ago
jayrot 7y ago
Tesla is first to market on a lot of fronts and has the huge first-mover advantage, but you're right, when the competition gets real the easy wins will be over. It has been said -- many times -- that the actual major advantage of Tesla cars is that they get better over time by virtue of their software update process. While many many of the big players (VW, Toyota, Honda, etc.) are going to match specs when it comes to battery range and whatnot, I haven't seen any indications that any of them intend to follow suit with the software. My 2 year old Toyota already feels like it is locked in the stone age when it comes to the software and features.
- tomxor 7y ago
  > While many many of the big players (VW, Toyota, Honda, etc.) are going to match specs when it comes to battery range and whatnot, I haven't seen any indications that any of them intend to follow suit with the software. I'm hoping for the opposite, a return to basics, reliability and separation of concerns, not 3 billion lines of code running every single part of the car with a transistor - sure electric engines need some fundamental low level software and computer, and you can argue it's more fundamental to the engine than modern ICE computers.. but the whole infotainment center hub network bullshit, I'd really rather not have it all tied together, give me the machine, and independently some electrics like windows, mirrors, radio... if there must be a media center, at least make it separate from the computer that makes the car operate. ... and if you hadn't guessed, i'm obviously not an autopilot/selfdriving proponent so I don't care about that argument for integration.
  - Angostura 7y ago
    I’m hoping for twisty knobs and flicky switches
    - romwell 7y ago
      They will come. In a the world of music equipment (synths in particular), it went like this: --70s: twisty knobs and flicky switches. --80s: We got CPU's now! Forget knobs, we got button arrays now. --90s: We got LCDs now! Forget buttons, here's one rotary control and menus on menus. --00s: If you pay us a lot, your menus will be on a touchscreen! Neat? No? .....No? :( --10's: twisty knobs and flicky switches. Walk into Guitar Center synth section, it's all about spaceship-kind of controls (one physical component for one parameter, and tons of blinkenlights). It turned out (suprise!) that all those menu-driven controls are cheaper and easier to make, but were not what the users needed nor enjoyed. These days, it's all about the analog equipment having digital control with a physical, tactile user interface (and no menus except for some niche parameters). It really looks like cars are following the same path.

sxates 7y ago

Tesla will be fine, for several reasons: 1. They're way ahead of everyone else in terms of energy efficiency. Compare a Model S or X to the Jaguar iPace or Audi e-tron - the Tesla gets 30-50% more range out of the same size battery. That's a big gap. 2. Super chargers - other manufacturers have to rely on really spotty networks of third-party charging stations that are unreliable, and add friction for their customers (have to have the right card and the right connector, etc.). Teslas super chargers are in all the right places, are stupid easy to use, and always work. 3. Tesla actually wants to sell EVs. The other manufacturers are hamstrung with their legacy product groups. They're just dipping their toes in the water trying to figure out how to make the transition without 'Osborning' themselves, or doing the minimum to satisfy California regulations. Tesla is all-in and innovating at a much faster pace.

clouddrover 7y ago
> Tesla will be fine, for several reasons Tesla will be fine as a niche manufacturer. Jaguar's been around for a long time and they've always been a low volume manufacturer. Tesla can be the same. > 1. They're way ahead of everyone else in terms of energy efficiency. The Hyundai Kona, Kia Niro EV, and the Kia Soul EV all achieve good range at a lower price point than Tesla offers. > 2. Super chargers - other manufacturers have to rely on really spotty networks of third-party charging stations that are unreliable Ionity in Europe is a joint venture between many manufacturers. Hyundai just recently joined: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/hyundai-kia-ionity-electric-car-charging/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/hyundai-kia-ionity-electr... Electrify America, EVgo, and ChargePoint now have roaming agreements which simplify charging for their users and makes the separate CCS networks act more like one large CCS network: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-charging-station/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-ch... Mercedes in Europe has agreements with the European charging networks to allow all charging billing to be done through the owner's Mercedes Me account. At this point it would be much better if Tesla switched their chargers and cars to CCS instead of persisting with a proprietary plug. If Tesla is interested in promoting EV usage (which they claim is their mission) then they will also allow all EVs to charge at their chargers, just like Teslas can charge at CCS chargers today. > 3. Tesla actually wants to sell EVs. Volkswagen has invested more money into EVs than anyone: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insight-idUSKCN1PV0K4 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insig...
- novok 7y ago
  Really? The gap isn’t that much, about $2200 looking at a before subsidy price. And the interior of the korean EVS are pretty cheap compared to the model 3, so if tesla wanted to they could make a tesla that uses cheap materials and doesn’t ship with special sensors. Call it the model 1. What holds me back is more a unknown / bad record of reliability with tesla and a lack of charging infrastructure in apartments for me.
  - clouddrover 7y ago
    > so if tesla wanted to they could make a tesla that uses cheap materials and doesn’t ship with special sensors. Call it the model 1. Could they? So why don't they? The 35k Model 3 didn't go too well. Why will this Model 1 do better for Tesla? It's difficult to target multiple segments simultaneously. You need the scale of a company like Volkswagen to do it successfully. Tesla is headed for a decision point on the kind of car company they want to be. They'll probably choose to stay low volume: https://www.thedrive.com/tech/29960/teslas-hero-cycle-leads-to-nrburgring-confrontation-with-itself https://www.thedrive.com/tech/29960/teslas-hero-cycle-leads-...
    - novok 7y ago
      The reason why is because they were not targeting creating a low end bog standard plastic cheap car that the kona represents for the model 3. The cabin differences would have to be too big to deliver it as a trim. Technologically I would see the model 1 being mostly the same platform as the model 3 with a cabin expressly designed for cheapness everywhere. So standard handles, standard ac, a 2 din stereo, everything plastic, only mirrors and cloth and no power seats. Kind of like the iphone xr with aluminum and an LCD. Make a platform variation is not that difficult. That would make it bridge the gap and probably beat the kona price wise
      - clouddrover 7y ago
        > The cabin differences would have to be too big to deliver it as a trim. So it's too difficult for Tesla to deliver. You agree with me: Hyundai's got Tesla beat on range at the price point. > That would make it bridge the gap and probably beat the kona price wise "Probably" is not a practical reality. The car you're talking about doesn't exist. The Kona EV, the Niro EV, and the Soul EV do exist. Hyundai is ahead here.

jillesvangurp 7y ago

Toyota and BMW both are dragging their heels with EVs and are mostly focusing on hybrids and hydrogen. IMHO both are a dead end and an expensive mistake. Battery prices and range are on track to improve for the foreseeable future and most other manufacturers are basically preparing to massively increase production of the dozens of EVs they announced in the next few years. There are very few manufacturers left that are not fully committed to EVs at this point. Toyota, Mazda, BMW, Fiat, and a few others basically. BMW already is signalling they expect issues with market share, growth, profit etc. and just appointed a new CEO to fix this. In other words, they are late to this game, they know it, and are now acting to fix this. I know less about Toyota but they seem to be very stubbornly ignoring battery EVs so far. IMHO that signals long term trouble for them as well. Unless they find a way to catch up in a hurry. Either way, they are late and the rest of the industry is not waiting for them. IMHO Nissan and Honda, are in much better shape. For most manufacturers the key game the next ten years is going to be securing availability of low cost batteries with decent range while balancing that cost with the absolute massive cost of dismantling their legacy manufacturing and supply industry. I expect layoffs directly related to that in Germany may affect tens of thousands or possibly hundreds of thousands of jobs across the thousands of companies that make up the car industry and their suppliers over the next decade. BMW just announced layoffs for 6000 in Germany. My guess is that won't be the last time. Tesla is where they are in the market right now because they decided years ago to produce battery packs in house and recently to also start producing their own battery cells. That gives them a cost and technical advantage. They have no legacy business and every penny that comes in is invested in more production capacity, lowering cost, and improving technology. VW is investing tens of billions to catch up in the next few years. IMHO this is exactly the right thing to do for them and I think Dieselgate helped speed up the decision making. The ID.3 is an important milestone for them and when they start shipping this in volume in a few years, it will no doubt affect the rest of the industry. They are already talking about Id.4 and my guess is they are not stopping there. I think there's a good chance they might wipe out or flat out absorb a few of their competitors in the process. BMW for example. Meanwhile Tesla has at least five years and probably closer to ten years where they are basically enjoying volume and cost advantages essentially unchallenged. I'd be surprised if they don't establish themselves as one of the top car manufacturers during that time.

7y ago

jayrot 7y ago

Tesla is first to market on a lot of fronts and has the huge first-mover advantage, but you're right, when the competition gets real the easy wins will be over. It has been said -- many times -- that the actual major advantage of Tesla cars is that they get better over time by virtue of their software update process. While many many of the big players (VW, Toyota, Honda, etc.) are going to match specs when it comes to battery range and whatnot, I haven't seen any indications that any of them intend to follow suit with the software. My 2 year old Toyota already feels like it is locked in the stone age when it comes to the software and features.

tomxor 7y ago
> While many many of the big players (VW, Toyota, Honda, etc.) are going to match specs when it comes to battery range and whatnot, I haven't seen any indications that any of them intend to follow suit with the software. I'm hoping for the opposite, a return to basics, reliability and separation of concerns, not 3 billion lines of code running every single part of the car with a transistor - sure electric engines need some fundamental low level software and computer, and you can argue it's more fundamental to the engine than modern ICE computers.. but the whole infotainment center hub network bullshit, I'd really rather not have it all tied together, give me the machine, and independently some electrics like windows, mirrors, radio... if there must be a media center, at least make it separate from the computer that makes the car operate. ... and if you hadn't guessed, i'm obviously not an autopilot/selfdriving proponent so I don't care about that argument for integration.
- Angostura 7y ago
  I’m hoping for twisty knobs and flicky switches
  - romwell 7y ago
    They will come. In a the world of music equipment (synths in particular), it went like this: --70s: twisty knobs and flicky switches. --80s: We got CPU's now! Forget knobs, we got button arrays now. --90s: We got LCDs now! Forget buttons, here's one rotary control and menus on menus. --00s: If you pay us a lot, your menus will be on a touchscreen! Neat? No? .....No? :( --10's: twisty knobs and flicky switches. Walk into Guitar Center synth section, it's all about spaceship-kind of controls (one physical component for one parameter, and tons of blinkenlights). It turned out (suprise!) that all those menu-driven controls are cheaper and easier to make, but were not what the users needed nor enjoyed. These days, it's all about the analog equipment having digital control with a physical, tactile user interface (and no menus except for some niche parameters). It really looks like cars are following the same path.