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The trick is this: the chances that a specific fund will do well that long via luck are very low, but the chances that there exists a fund among all that exist
by ADefenestrator 7y ago
The trick is this: the chances that a specific fund will do well that long via luck are very low, but the chances that there exists a fund among all that exist that has done well via luck are quite high.
- auntienomen 7y agoI can tell you haven't actually done the calculation. There's only been about 20000 hedge funds in total over history. The odds of random chance producing Medallion's track record with that many draws are actually very low.