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I can't remember the name of the phenomenon, but there's a theory that technological progress happens in cycles. The first half of each cycle contains large sp
by ghobs91 7y ago
I can't remember the name of the phenomenon, but there's a theory that technological progress happens in cycles.
The first half of each cycle contains large spurts of innovation and change which result in big shifts to how the world works (internet, vaccines, the automobile, jets, nuclear power/weapons).
The second half contains incremental improvements on those big innovations and focus more on convenience/leisure (social media connecting the world, uber, netflix, airbnb, etc).
We're currently in the second incremental half, but things like Space X (mars colonization, cheap rockets), CRISPR (gene therapy curing numerous ailments), and the like, tell me that we're not far away from the beginning of another paradigm shift innovation phase.
- sambal 7y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle ?
- ghobs91 7y agoNope, what I'm thinking of is a much more macro/long timeline focused phenomenon that looks at how innovation progresses over hundred year spans.
- leggomylibro 7y agoYour examples of "improving every day quality of life" are "social media connecting the world, uber, netflix, airbnb"? Wow, we have very different perspectives on the world.
- ghobs91 7y agoMaybe "quality of life" isn't the best way to describe it. I meant things that are more focused on entertainment or making life more convenient, as opposed to completely changing culture/life for people.
- jpfed 7y agoBringing together this and what Simon321 said here ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20686466 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20686466 ), it may be that computers themselves have prolonged the current technological era by allowing us to wring out many more incremental improvements.
- nostrademons 7y agoCarlota Perez - Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital.
- beefman 7y agoAre you thinking of Kuhn's paradigm shifts?[1] Or the closely-related concept of punctuated equilibria?[2][3] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punctuated_equilibrium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punctuated_equilibrium [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcAq9bmCeR0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcAq9bmCeR0