6 ms·

A few weeks ago, I never would have expected China to profess/commit violence openly, just because of the comparatively open press in Hong Kong + ubiquity of ce

by jwilbs 7y ago

A few weeks ago, I never would have expected China to profess/commit violence openly, just because of the comparatively open press in Hong Kong + ubiquity of cell phones. After the triad attacks, and now this, I’m worried how far China will go to suppress any unrest. FWIW, any Americans looking to (try to) help may write their Congress representatives to support the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.

devoply 7y ago
Yeah I think US should send troops, build a base, and annex Hong Kong.
- Marsymars 7y ago
  I expect the PRC would treat that similarly as the US attempting to annex Shanghai, or any other major city in China.
  - devoply 7y ago
    Let them, let's see what they will do. I wonder who would win such a conventional war. Though I guess afterwards there would be no Hong Kong left protecting.
    - meowface 7y ago
      Setting up the pre-conditions for World War III sounds like a fantastic idea.
    - praptak 7y ago
      Who says it stays conventional?
    - PKop 7y ago
      What does winning look like? Certainly both would lose many lives. Why would any American want to die for this crisis? Why would you imagine China would give up or be unable to defend territory so near their mainland?
    - ivalm 7y ago
      China has enough nukes for this to be a moot point. The outcome would be the same as if China decided to annex Hawaii -- an all out war with nuclear and other WMD.
    - avip 7y ago
      WW III - the missing CC mitigation plan in project drawdown.
    - roenxi 7y ago
      > I wonder who would win such a conventional war. In a defensive war, probably China. They've got more tanks, more people, more manufacturing capabilities, lots of artillery and no doubt they've spent years preparing themselves militarily for such an event.
- PKop 7y ago
  I imagine you won't be signing up to fight in this war you envision others fighting? Maybe you should be sent, or perhaps your son?
  - devoply 7y ago
    With the sort of salaries US pays troops you could easily have a million mercs lined up from all sorts of different countries by Thursday next week.
    - PKop 7y ago
      To do what exactly?
      - devoply 7y ago
        Liberate Hong Kong.
        PKop 7y ago
        How would sending ground troops into Hong Kong, or China accomplish anything but getting a lot of people killed?
        throwaway8879 7y ago
        I recommend you study the human history of politics and warfare, to fully understand why your comment is supremely naive.
        sametmax 7y ago
        You mean like the US liberated Iraq ? EDIT: damn it, Irak (french) is spelled with a q in English.
        NikolaeVarius 7y ago
        Innocent question why spell Iraq with a k I've never seen that before and wondering if it has special meaning outside of just a way to spell it
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > US should send troops, build a base, and annex Hong Kong No, but we should definitely subsidise defensive weapons sales to Taiwan and our other democratic allies in the region.
  - remarkEon 7y ago
    Yes, because this activity is totally invisible to China and they will not ever notice F-35s, AH-64s, and American-made Air Defense weapons just magically showing up around their borders.
    - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > this activity is totally invisible to China Deterrence doesn’t work if done in secret. If China intervened in Hong Kong militarily, Taiwan and our allies need to be able to credibly threaten the mainland with retaliation.
      - remarkEon 7y ago
        Why? I don't mean to come of as hash, but that is eerily similar to how we ended up in Vietnam. What happens when Taiwan (or whoever you think these other allies are ... Japan and South Korea, presumably) gets run over by a numerically superior - by an order of magnitude - Chinese Army? And how does one "credibly threaten the mainland with retaliation" without nuclear weapons? Honest question.
        JumpCrisscross 7y ago
        > that is eerily similar to how we ended up in Vietnam Vietnam involved American ground troops. Upgrading a country’s standing army is different. (Tactical note. China has a huge army. It’s navy is humbler. Troop transport capacities are manageable with the right guns and logistical lines. Add to that the international waters separating Taiwan and China, and an invasion can be rendered untenable.) that is eerily similar to how we ended up in Vietnam> how does one "credibly threaten the mainland with retaliation" without nuclear weapons? Non-nuclear ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles. Mines. Stealth bombers.
- dasil003 7y ago
  Why not Russia? They’re closer and they love annexing stuff.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
Rainymood 7y ago
>I’m worried how far China will go to suppress any unrest. "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it." The mere fact that I had a previous comment in which I directly refer to ... some point in the past and I deleted it because I am scared of the (global) repercussions of my comments on the internet is horrifying...
rolltiide 7y ago
> Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act What is up with the delusional nature of Hong Kong proponents? I mean I get that there are no other options but come on we have to watch this slow motion trainwreck for 50 years straight? Just get it over with already! The US is merely going to re-evaluate Hong Kong’s independence, not this thing on the other end of the spectrum. Everything I ever hear about Hong Kong residents is oozing with delusion. “We’ll get UK passports!” Remember that meme? Im going to be on the edge of my seat if she requests the military though
lisper 7y ago
> I never would have expected China to profess/commit violence openly Seriously? I'm surprised they held off this long. Remember Tienanmen Square?
- kibwen 7y ago
  > Remember Tienanmen Square? Worry not, they're busily working on making sure you won't.
- jwilbs 7y ago
  Conveniently, you ignored everything I wrote after the comma: “just because of the comparatively open press in Hong Kong + ubiquity of cell phones” Of course I remember Tienanmen. And I’m also aware of the Uyghur camps. It’s no surprise that a country as authoritarian as China will be violent. What’s surprising is that it’s being violent in an autonomous territory with many Western connections.
  - lisper 7y ago
    No, I didn't ignore it, I just didn't see how it was relevant (and still don't). > What’s surprising is that it’s being violent in an autonomous territory with many Western connections. I don't see what that has to do with an open press and ubiquity of cell phones. Furthermore, Honk Kong is not "an autonomous territory". It's part of China, full stop. The fact that the people who live there are behaving as if it were an autonomous territory is no small part of the problem. Also, which of Hong Kong's "many Western connections" do you think is going to intervene when China invades? Do you really think Donald Trump is going to stand up for democracy? Do you really think Boris Johnson is going to send troops to protect Hong Kong's free press?
k_sze 7y ago
> FWIW, any Americans looking to (try to) help may write their Congress representatives to support the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Please don't. We don't need more concrete excuses for the central government to claim that there is foreign meddling. If the people of the country cannot awaken to fight together in solidarity against the authoritarian government, then it's just too bad. So be it. I still live in Hong Kong and it's a scary thought, but it's also the only correct way. In fact, nobody can expect the US or any foreign government to want to "save" Hong Kong in good faith. We don't need your saving.
- goblin89 7y ago
  I keep wishing the West stopped reporting on “successful” protests. What good does that do? Make mainland China more and more insecure about its image?
  - sametmax 7y ago
    What good is a protest if it's not heard and relayed ?
    - goblin89 7y ago
      Relayed where? The target audience of the protests are (1) local officials, and (2) fellow citizens who do not share the gravity of the situation. CCP will, of course, know of the protests with no need for any relay. The “HK students protested against pro-China regulation and quickly succeeded, rejoice!” articles in Western media, though, will also be read by CCP. What would you do if you felt yourself losing your hard-earned strong image in front of the whole world? Local media attention helps, worldwide—not so much.
      - pas 7y ago
        Just cut your losses, donate HK to itself, like Singapore. Of course, since Beijing is not really the backing down type, it'll be a little bit of a bloodshed and the unification will be completed ahead of schedule.
remarkEon 7y ago
>FWIW, any Americans looking to (try to) help may write their Congress representatives to support the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. We just spent the last 3+ years, complaining about foreign meddling in our democracy and now we're right back to advocating that we do it ourselves to someone else. Amazing.
onetimemanytime 7y ago
>>"A few weeks ago, I never would have expected China to profess/commit violence openly, just because of the comparatively open press in Hong Kong + ubiquity of cell phones. Oh, no. Not violence, they're merely "maintaining order," something the state is obligated to do. A few criminals are using violent acts and making life miserable for the silent majority...etc etc.

by jwilbs 7y ago

devoply 7y ago

Yeah I think US should send troops, build a base, and annex Hong Kong.

Marsymars 7y ago
I expect the PRC would treat that similarly as the US attempting to annex Shanghai, or any other major city in China.
- devoply 7y ago
  Let them, let's see what they will do. I wonder who would win such a conventional war. Though I guess afterwards there would be no Hong Kong left protecting.
  - meowface 7y ago
    Setting up the pre-conditions for World War III sounds like a fantastic idea.
  - praptak 7y ago
    Who says it stays conventional?
  - PKop 7y ago
    What does winning look like? Certainly both would lose many lives. Why would any American want to die for this crisis? Why would you imagine China would give up or be unable to defend territory so near their mainland?
  - ivalm 7y ago
    China has enough nukes for this to be a moot point. The outcome would be the same as if China decided to annex Hawaii -- an all out war with nuclear and other WMD.
  - avip 7y ago
    WW III - the missing CC mitigation plan in project drawdown.
  - roenxi 7y ago
    > I wonder who would win such a conventional war. In a defensive war, probably China. They've got more tanks, more people, more manufacturing capabilities, lots of artillery and no doubt they've spent years preparing themselves militarily for such an event.
PKop 7y ago
I imagine you won't be signing up to fight in this war you envision others fighting? Maybe you should be sent, or perhaps your son?
- devoply 7y ago
  With the sort of salaries US pays troops you could easily have a million mercs lined up from all sorts of different countries by Thursday next week.
  - PKop 7y ago
    To do what exactly?
    - devoply 7y ago
      Liberate Hong Kong.
      - PKop 7y ago
        How would sending ground troops into Hong Kong, or China accomplish anything but getting a lot of people killed?
      - throwaway8879 7y ago
        I recommend you study the human history of politics and warfare, to fully understand why your comment is supremely naive.
      - sametmax 7y ago
        You mean like the US liberated Iraq ? EDIT: damn it, Irak (french) is spelled with a q in English.
        NikolaeVarius 7y ago
        Innocent question why spell Iraq with a k I've never seen that before and wondering if it has special meaning outside of just a way to spell it
JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> US should send troops, build a base, and annex Hong Kong No, but we should definitely subsidise defensive weapons sales to Taiwan and our other democratic allies in the region.
- remarkEon 7y ago
  Yes, because this activity is totally invisible to China and they will not ever notice F-35s, AH-64s, and American-made Air Defense weapons just magically showing up around their borders.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > this activity is totally invisible to China Deterrence doesn’t work if done in secret. If China intervened in Hong Kong militarily, Taiwan and our allies need to be able to credibly threaten the mainland with retaliation.
    - remarkEon 7y ago
      Why? I don't mean to come of as hash, but that is eerily similar to how we ended up in Vietnam. What happens when Taiwan (or whoever you think these other allies are ... Japan and South Korea, presumably) gets run over by a numerically superior - by an order of magnitude - Chinese Army? And how does one "credibly threaten the mainland with retaliation" without nuclear weapons? Honest question.
      - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
        > that is eerily similar to how we ended up in Vietnam Vietnam involved American ground troops. Upgrading a country’s standing army is different. (Tactical note. China has a huge army. It’s navy is humbler. Troop transport capacities are manageable with the right guns and logistical lines. Add to that the international waters separating Taiwan and China, and an invasion can be rendered untenable.) that is eerily similar to how we ended up in Vietnam> how does one "credibly threaten the mainland with retaliation" without nuclear weapons? Non-nuclear ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles. Mines. Stealth bombers.
dasil003 7y ago
Why not Russia? They’re closer and they love annexing stuff.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

Rainymood 7y ago

>I’m worried how far China will go to suppress any unrest. "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it." The mere fact that I had a previous comment in which I directly refer to ... some point in the past and I deleted it because I am scared of the (global) repercussions of my comments on the internet is horrifying...

rolltiide 7y ago

> Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act What is up with the delusional nature of Hong Kong proponents? I mean I get that there are no other options but come on we have to watch this slow motion trainwreck for 50 years straight? Just get it over with already! The US is merely going to re-evaluate Hong Kong’s independence, not this thing on the other end of the spectrum. Everything I ever hear about Hong Kong residents is oozing with delusion. “We’ll get UK passports!” Remember that meme? Im going to be on the edge of my seat if she requests the military though

lisper 7y ago

> I never would have expected China to profess/commit violence openly Seriously? I'm surprised they held off this long. Remember Tienanmen Square?

kibwen 7y ago
> Remember Tienanmen Square? Worry not, they're busily working on making sure you won't.
jwilbs 7y ago
Conveniently, you ignored everything I wrote after the comma: “just because of the comparatively open press in Hong Kong + ubiquity of cell phones” Of course I remember Tienanmen. And I’m also aware of the Uyghur camps. It’s no surprise that a country as authoritarian as China will be violent. What’s surprising is that it’s being violent in an autonomous territory with many Western connections.
- lisper 7y ago
  No, I didn't ignore it, I just didn't see how it was relevant (and still don't). > What’s surprising is that it’s being violent in an autonomous territory with many Western connections. I don't see what that has to do with an open press and ubiquity of cell phones. Furthermore, Honk Kong is not "an autonomous territory". It's part of China, full stop. The fact that the people who live there are behaving as if it were an autonomous territory is no small part of the problem. Also, which of Hong Kong's "many Western connections" do you think is going to intervene when China invades? Do you really think Donald Trump is going to stand up for democracy? Do you really think Boris Johnson is going to send troops to protect Hong Kong's free press?

k_sze 7y ago

> FWIW, any Americans looking to (try to) help may write their Congress representatives to support the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Please don't. We don't need more concrete excuses for the central government to claim that there is foreign meddling. If the people of the country cannot awaken to fight together in solidarity against the authoritarian government, then it's just too bad. So be it. I still live in Hong Kong and it's a scary thought, but it's also the only correct way. In fact, nobody can expect the US or any foreign government to want to "save" Hong Kong in good faith. We don't need your saving.

goblin89 7y ago
I keep wishing the West stopped reporting on “successful” protests. What good does that do? Make mainland China more and more insecure about its image?
- sametmax 7y ago
  What good is a protest if it's not heard and relayed ?
  - goblin89 7y ago
    Relayed where? The target audience of the protests are (1) local officials, and (2) fellow citizens who do not share the gravity of the situation. CCP will, of course, know of the protests with no need for any relay. The “HK students protested against pro-China regulation and quickly succeeded, rejoice!” articles in Western media, though, will also be read by CCP. What would you do if you felt yourself losing your hard-earned strong image in front of the whole world? Local media attention helps, worldwide—not so much.
    - pas 7y ago
      Just cut your losses, donate HK to itself, like Singapore. Of course, since Beijing is not really the backing down type, it'll be a little bit of a bloodshed and the unification will be completed ahead of schedule.

remarkEon 7y ago

>FWIW, any Americans looking to (try to) help may write their Congress representatives to support the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. We just spent the last 3+ years, complaining about foreign meddling in our democracy and now we're right back to advocating that we do it ourselves to someone else. Amazing.

onetimemanytime 7y ago

>>"A few weeks ago, I never would have expected China to profess/commit violence openly, just because of the comparatively open press in Hong Kong + ubiquity of cell phones. Oh, no. Not violence, they're merely "maintaining order," something the state is obligated to do. A few criminals are using violent acts and making life miserable for the silent majority...etc etc.