"25% chance of nothing, and 75% chance of, say, a 3x exit. I dunno, that seems crazy risky to me" If these are the odds, the expected outcome would be that you

"25% chance of nothing, and 75% chance of, say, a 3x exit. I dunno, that seems crazy risky to me" If these are the odds, the expected outcome would be that you more then double your money. 25%0+75%3=2.25