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No one single instance of an extreme can be used to pinpoint "climate change" , but the absurd statistical deviation from the norm over the last 10 yrs or so is
by hackersword 7y ago
No one single instance of an extreme can be used to pinpoint "climate change" , but the absurd statistical deviation from the norm over the last 10 yrs or so is notable and clearly present.
https://www.pnas.org/content/108/44/17905 https://www.pnas.org/content/108/44/17905
But sure, lets play devil's advocate.
- ctlby 7y agoYour linked paper does not discuss natural disasters at all. How is this an answer to the parent comment’s concerns?
- hackersword 7y agoparent comment >I am also incredibly tired of people banging the climate change drum every time there is a weather anomaly (or even a marginally notable event). In a dynamical system "anomalies" are normal. linked paper (first sentence) >We develop a theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes in generic time series, using analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations "weather anomaly/marginally notable event" signified by the "expected number of extremes" In this paper, focused on the extreme heat wave in Moscow and linked to other anomolies in recent news https://www.pnas.org/content/108/44/17905#ref-2 https://www.pnas.org/content/108/44/17905#ref-2 The google scholar link/search seems broken, but I remember reading this when it came out in 2011 and covered a wide range of global heat waves in disparate parts of countries, extreme drought, extreme flooding, wild fires, etc.