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Even before Paul Graham and Viaweb, the stats were that about 90% of new businesses fail and a big predictor of success (but still at low odds) was ignorance of
by hopler 7y ago
Even before Paul Graham and Viaweb, the stats were that about 90% of new businesses fail and a big predictor of success (but still at low odds) was ignorance of those odds.
- pbhjpbhj 7y agoOur new business just "failed" after 15 years (it was designed to support our family, which unexpectedly grew). But, regardless, when I checked the failure rate reported in gov stats in UK was far lower than the common wisdom held; which surprised me somewhat. Do you have a source of solid figures to back up that 90%?
- opencl 7y agoThe whole "90% of businesses fail" thing is pretty meaningless without a timespan attached to it. Obviously almost all companies eventually go out of business for some reason or another. About three quarters last more than a year, about half last to 5 years, and about a third last to 10 years. https://www.fundera.com/blog/small-business-survival https://www.fundera.com/blog/small-business-survival
- TeMPOraL 7y agoAlso if you forget the whole startup "go big or go home", what also matters is whether the company left the people involved - the founders, the employees - richer than they were before, or did it ruin the founders. Because a business that lasted 5 years and closed because the market dried up, but in that time netted the founder more than a regular job would, is pretty successful in my books.
- pbhjpbhj 7y agoThanks for posting that, TeMPOral. It helps to put things in a good perspective - our business has given us much joy, far more joy than a regular job would. Not so great on the money aspect; which I guess is why no-one has stepped up with interest to take it on.
- ghda 7y agoIt’s a completely made up statistic, as far as I can tell, and it’s repeated constantly. It probably does a lot of harm, too, by discouraging people from having a go, people who might have actually got off their arses if they’d instead believed “half of all businesses fail within five years”.
- pbhjpbhj 7y agoYes, sorry, the phrase repeated by nearly everyone was "90% [of [small] businesses] fail in the first year". Which compared to your 25% figure is pretty markedly different - that's the sort of discrepancy I was seeing.
- Simon_says 7y agoHow did your family unexpectedly grow?
- djakjxnanjak 7y agoI think if they wanted to go into more detail about that, they would have done so.
- Simon_says 7y agoIt's just an unusual concept to think about. Long-lost relatives re-appearing or something along those lines?
- djakjxnanjak 7y agoIt’s also possible for someone to become a child’s guardian if their parents lose the ability to fill that role. I don’t know how widespread this is across cultures, but in my family, parents of newborn children name a “godfather” and/or “godmother” (usually an aunt/uncle) who become responsible for this by default.
- Simon_says 7y agoYea, I didn't think of that. Lots of possibilities. That's why I asked.
- not2b 7y agoWell, Simon, when a man loves a woman very much, he ...
- Simon_says 7y agoNothing unexpected about that ...
- ascar 7y ago
- sgift 7y ago> But, regardless, when I checked the failure rate reported in gov stats in UK was far lower than the common wisdom held; which surprised me somewhat. Does the UK government split into VC backed and not VC-backed? I always thought that number only holds for the "go big or go home" type of business (i.e. VC backed), not for normal ones.