7 ms·

How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation bias?

3 points by fruscica 19y ago

fruscica 19y ago
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias: In January 2006, Drew Westen and a team from Emory University announced at the annual Society for Personality and Social Psychology conference in Palm Springs, California the results of a study[2] showing the brain activity for confirmation bias. Their results suggest the unconscious and emotion-driven nature of this form of bias. The study was carried out during the pre-electoral period of the 2004 presidential election on 30 men, half who described themselves as strong Republicans and half as strong Democrats. During a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scan, the subjects were asked to assess contradictory statements by both George W. Bush and John Kerry. The scans showed that the part of the brain associated with reasoning, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was not involved when assessing the statements. Conversely, the most active regions of the brain were those involved in processing emotions (orbitofrontal cortex), conflict resolution (anterior cingulate cortex) and making judgment about moral accountability (posterior cingulate cortex).[3] Dr. Westen summarised the work: "None of the circuits involved in conscious reasoning were particularly engaged. Essentially, it appears as if partisans twirl the cognitive kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want, and then they get massively reinforced for it, with the elimination of negative emotional states and activation of positive ones.... Everyone from executives and judges to scientists and politicians may reason to emotionally biased judgments when they have a vested interest in how to interpret 'the facts'."[4] ---end of wikipedia excerpt--- As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive.
- nostrademons 19y ago
  Probably pretty badly. Like everybody else. That said, your comments don't languish because they contradict some deeply held notions of the news.YC community. They languish because they're irrelevant and read like spam. Most people here know they have to market profitably, they just don't think anything you've proposed is the best approach to that.
  - fruscica 19y ago
    What have I submitted that is irrelevant to understanding how to maximize profits from branded entertainment? Be specific.
  - fruscica 19y ago
    Also, you should lose the style of response you used above. Way too ad hominem, especially given that you spent exactly no time acquainting yourself w/ the content linked to by my submissions.
- zaidf 19y ago
  Actually, I'm not sure you can call this "suffering." Having a healthy dose of confirmation bias can be the difference between trusting your instincts and giving in to naysayers(much of the world). Opposite extreme of confirmation bias is going by research and the written laws. And we know very well the limits of research. Obviously confirmation bias is no excuse to ignoring apparent problems and flaws. That is just denial--especially in later stages of a startup.
  - fruscica 19y ago
    My takeaway from the Wikipedia excerpt is that being afflicted w/ confirmation bias equates to being in denial. Healthy denial seems oxymoronic, as denial precludes risk management...
    - zaidf 19y ago
      In that case, I'll say that denial has some role behind almost every big entrepreneur's success or business deal.
      - fruscica 19y ago
        Hmmmm... As best I can recall, relevant (meta-analyses of) studies of entrepreneurship concluded that successful entrepreneurs are typically very mindful of risk. Amar Bhide's book The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses may be a good source for a survey of the aforesaid scholarship.
        zaidf 19y ago
        Mindful but not necessarily dictated. In some ways the idea of "risk" itself is a form of denial, no?
    - byrneseyeview 19y ago
      Most startups fail, so anyone involved in a startup has to spend all of their waking time doing something that is probably not going to make them any money. If it's 2 AM and you haven't slept in a few days and the difference between working and not working is almost certainly $0, denial is a competitive advantage.
- jey 19y ago
  As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive. I agree with the idea that here in this Web Startup World Echo Chamber, we're all probably suffering from a big helping of confirmation bias... but your comment at the end about this being reflected by your submissions being ignored is a total non-sequitur. How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc? Lack of interest in the videos you recorded doesn't necessarily indicate that the audience here suffers from confirmation bias. Maybe the community just isn't interested in your submissions.
  - fruscica 19y ago
    How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc? Well, as nearly as I can tell, many of the folks who frequent YC News are interested in understanding how to give rise to a successful startup, and two big pieces of that puzzle are marketing and generating profits...
    - SwellJoe 19y ago
      And this assumes that your submissions provide valuable information about some key piece of that. It appears YC'ers disagree with your assessment. Your premise here may very well be valid, but that doesn't mean the voted down posts were good.
      - fruscica 19y ago
        As nearly as I can tell, nobody went as far as to engage the content linked to by my submissions. To my mind, this begs the question: why are YCers not interested in learning (more) about marketing profitably through branded entertainment, given that it is a proven source of competitive advantage? I think confirmation bias has to be considered as an explanation, but I don't pretend to know whether this hypothesis is valid...
- pg 19y ago
  This has to be the most elaborate gripe I've ever heard from someone whose stuff got ignored on a social news site. I don't remember any of your other submissions, but if they had as low a signal to noise ratio as this one, I can see why they might not have got many votes. Basically this post = "Everyone here is so deluded that they ignore me!" and not even in your own words.
  - fruscica 19y ago
    I'm just positing a hypothesis. Why so gratuitously ad hominem? At least gather some data first... (But thanks for the interesting data point :-)
    - ed 19y ago
      I think this whole thing is just an excuse to use his favorite new phrase "ad hominem."
      - fruscica 19y ago
        What is the signal-to-noise ratio of this comment?
    - inklesspen 19y ago
      It's rather disingenuous to say "you all suffer from confirmation bias because you ignore my posts" and then claim ad hominem attacks when people point out that your posts are not that interesting. _You_ are the one who started the conversation focusing on you and your posts.
      - fruscica 19y ago
        Well, imho, I engaged thoughtfully w/ the folks who did the same... And why wouldn't (aspiring) entrepreneurs be interested in learning more about a proven source of competitive advantage? Please be specific about my failings on this count.
  - fruscica 19y ago
ereldon 19y ago
I can see this... but the best way to judge whether such bias exists (and is also a bad thing) is by looking at the success or failure of our startups, right? The free market ain't perfect, but it's better than most other methods of deciding value. This point assumes that we take each other's advice here ;) Also, I recall a BBC article a while back citing a study showing that ~half of all scientific studies turn out wrong because they failed to exclude variables. The study, below, needs to be supported by other studies in other circumstances (and maybe those exist -- I don't read psy journals).

3 points by fruscica 19y ago

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias: In January 2006, Drew Westen and a team from Emory University announced at the annual Society for Personality and Social Psychology conference in Palm Springs, California the results of a study[2] showing the brain activity for confirmation bias. Their results suggest the unconscious and emotion-driven nature of this form of bias. The study was carried out during the pre-electoral period of the 2004 presidential election on 30 men, half who described themselves as strong Republicans and half as strong Democrats. During a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scan, the subjects were asked to assess contradictory statements by both George W. Bush and John Kerry. The scans showed that the part of the brain associated with reasoning, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was not involved when assessing the statements. Conversely, the most active regions of the brain were those involved in processing emotions (orbitofrontal cortex), conflict resolution (anterior cingulate cortex) and making judgment about moral accountability (posterior cingulate cortex).[3] Dr. Westen summarised the work: "None of the circuits involved in conscious reasoning were particularly engaged. Essentially, it appears as if partisans twirl the cognitive kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want, and then they get massively reinforced for it, with the elimination of negative emotional states and activation of positive ones.... Everyone from executives and judges to scientists and politicians may reason to emotionally biased judgments when they have a vested interest in how to interpret 'the facts'."[4] ---end of wikipedia excerpt--- As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive.

nostrademons 19y ago
Probably pretty badly. Like everybody else. That said, your comments don't languish because they contradict some deeply held notions of the news.YC community. They languish because they're irrelevant and read like spam. Most people here know they have to market profitably, they just don't think anything you've proposed is the best approach to that.
- fruscica 19y ago
  What have I submitted that is irrelevant to understanding how to maximize profits from branded entertainment? Be specific.
- fruscica 19y ago
  Also, you should lose the style of response you used above. Way too ad hominem, especially given that you spent exactly no time acquainting yourself w/ the content linked to by my submissions.
zaidf 19y ago
Actually, I'm not sure you can call this "suffering." Having a healthy dose of confirmation bias can be the difference between trusting your instincts and giving in to naysayers(much of the world). Opposite extreme of confirmation bias is going by research and the written laws. And we know very well the limits of research. Obviously confirmation bias is no excuse to ignoring apparent problems and flaws. That is just denial--especially in later stages of a startup.
- fruscica 19y ago
  My takeaway from the Wikipedia excerpt is that being afflicted w/ confirmation bias equates to being in denial. Healthy denial seems oxymoronic, as denial precludes risk management...
  - zaidf 19y ago
    In that case, I'll say that denial has some role behind almost every big entrepreneur's success or business deal.
    - fruscica 19y ago
      Hmmmm... As best I can recall, relevant (meta-analyses of) studies of entrepreneurship concluded that successful entrepreneurs are typically very mindful of risk. Amar Bhide's book The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses may be a good source for a survey of the aforesaid scholarship.
      - zaidf 19y ago
        Mindful but not necessarily dictated. In some ways the idea of "risk" itself is a form of denial, no?
  - byrneseyeview 19y ago
    Most startups fail, so anyone involved in a startup has to spend all of their waking time doing something that is probably not going to make them any money. If it's 2 AM and you haven't slept in a few days and the difference between working and not working is almost certainly $0, denial is a competitive advantage.
jey 19y ago
As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive. I agree with the idea that here in this Web Startup World Echo Chamber, we're all probably suffering from a big helping of confirmation bias... but your comment at the end about this being reflected by your submissions being ignored is a total non-sequitur. How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc? Lack of interest in the videos you recorded doesn't necessarily indicate that the audience here suffers from confirmation bias. Maybe the community just isn't interested in your submissions.
- fruscica 19y ago
  How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc? Well, as nearly as I can tell, many of the folks who frequent YC News are interested in understanding how to give rise to a successful startup, and two big pieces of that puzzle are marketing and generating profits...
  - SwellJoe 19y ago
    And this assumes that your submissions provide valuable information about some key piece of that. It appears YC'ers disagree with your assessment. Your premise here may very well be valid, but that doesn't mean the voted down posts were good.
    - fruscica 19y ago
      As nearly as I can tell, nobody went as far as to engage the content linked to by my submissions. To my mind, this begs the question: why are YCers not interested in learning (more) about marketing profitably through branded entertainment, given that it is a proven source of competitive advantage? I think confirmation bias has to be considered as an explanation, but I don't pretend to know whether this hypothesis is valid...
pg 19y ago
This has to be the most elaborate gripe I've ever heard from someone whose stuff got ignored on a social news site. I don't remember any of your other submissions, but if they had as low a signal to noise ratio as this one, I can see why they might not have got many votes. Basically this post = "Everyone here is so deluded that they ignore me!" and not even in your own words.
- fruscica 19y ago
  I'm just positing a hypothesis. Why so gratuitously ad hominem? At least gather some data first... (But thanks for the interesting data point :-)
  - ed 19y ago
    I think this whole thing is just an excuse to use his favorite new phrase "ad hominem."
    - fruscica 19y ago
      What is the signal-to-noise ratio of this comment?
  - inklesspen 19y ago
    It's rather disingenuous to say "you all suffer from confirmation bias because you ignore my posts" and then claim ad hominem attacks when people point out that your posts are not that interesting. _You_ are the one who started the conversation focusing on you and your posts.
    - fruscica 19y ago
      Well, imho, I engaged thoughtfully w/ the folks who did the same... And why wouldn't (aspiring) entrepreneurs be interested in learning more about a proven source of competitive advantage? Please be specific about my failings on this count.
- fruscica 19y ago

ereldon 19y ago

I can see this... but the best way to judge whether such bias exists (and is also a bad thing) is by looking at the success or failure of our startups, right? The free market ain't perfect, but it's better than most other methods of deciding value. This point assumes that we take each other's advice here ;) Also, I recall a BBC article a while back citing a study showing that ~half of all scientific studies turn out wrong because they failed to exclude variables. The study, below, needs to be supported by other studies in other circumstances (and maybe those exist -- I don't read psy journals).