P(cancer) >> P(hit by a bus) I know a woman under 40 who had cancer, and a woman under 30 who had cancer. And I may know more, for all I know. Plus plenty of o

P(cancer) >> P(hit by a bus) I know a woman under 40 who had cancer, and a woman under 30 who had cancer. And I may know more, for all I know. Plus plenty of over-50s who've had cancer. And my social sphere is not all that large. I'd have to say cancer is not really a low-probability event.