The way I interpreted PG's statement is that although (obviously) there are different ROI's for startups the main decision is not _how much_ ROI you make but _i

The way I interpreted PG's statement is that although (obviously) there are different ROI's for startups the main decision is not _how much_ ROI you make but _if_ you will be able to make any at all. It's much more important to understand the dynamics at the decision point of investment (like Fred also says) whether or not you invest. Obviously the decision to invest is bimodal (you do or you don't) and you do this depending on what the investor believes the outcome (also bimodal - success or failure) to be. From an entrepreneurs perspective you don't really care if you make 10x or 3x because at that level it's a success either way.