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Spoilers Ahead! > betting their existence on a species they knew already uses MAD If ant colonies depend on MAD for continued existence, it means nothing to u

Spoilers Ahead! > betting their existence on a species they knew already uses MAD If ant colonies depend on MAD for continued existence, it means nothing to us. This example was used multiple times throughout the series. They didn't even make a singular bet on Earth. The invasion was just one avenue they chose for survival. > You don't have to invade a system, you can send a stealthy probe. In the dark forest of the three body universe you could send a probe, but you learn nothing if it finds no life in a system. The only reliable, actionable information a probe can provide you is if life is found. Finding an absence of life just as easily means that the life in the system is so far advanced beyond you that you cannot detect it. It would be far riskier to bet your future on a system in which you found no life. Not to mention that you are making a huge gamble on the stealthiness of said probe. The probe could be the very thing that makes you the target of a dark forest strike. Earth already appeared safe, so why take further action that carries real risk of notifying some other civilization that you exist? You can't be reliably stealthy because some other race can be technically beyond you. > Send a big meteor Earth was an un-imaginable eden to Tri-Solaris, it's made clear that they wanted the planet intact. > or make a deadly disease that looks like flu This requires a much longer timeline as multiple trips are required to carry out the plan. The Tri-Solarans were facing a very real threat of extinction that made a shorter plan worth the risk. It's made very clear that they did not wish to exterminate humanity. Earth was valuable because in all probability the rest of the universe did not know it existed. Given that you are saying they were stupid for not building space habitats, you must not be aware of what actually happened to the Tri-Solarans :). Besides, those space habitats present their own form of danger to their inhabitants. Actually, the danger they pose is worse than existing on a planet.

ajuc 8y ago
> If ant colonies depend on MAD for continued existence, it means nothing to us. But we're not an ant colony to them, we're already using technology that can be used for MAD (sending signals through the sun), and they know it from the start. > Earth was an un-imaginable eden to Tri-Solaris, it's made clear that they wanted the planet intact. As far as I understand every planet in the system was heaven for them, the orbit was important. Which is stupid, because you can make anything follow a circular orbit around some star. > This [flu] requires a much longer timeline as multiple trips are required to carry out the plan. Why? They have their stealth probe (don't remember how it was called), they can take a look at a spanish influenza or something and pimp it up a little. At worst they then need to send like 1 gram at almost light speed the conventional way - still much easier and faster than sending the armada. > Given that you are saying they were stupid for not building space habitats, you must not be aware of what actually happened to the Tri-Solarans :). They were destroyed because their coordinates were broadcasted. As they should expect from the start messing with civilization that broadcasted "hello". > those space habitats present their own form of danger to their inhabitants. Actually, the danger they pose is worse than existing on a planet. How? They aren't any less stealthy than sattelites, tv, or radio.
- lsadam0 8y ago
  * More Spoilers * > But we're not an ant colony to them Tri-Solaris technologically stomps humanity throughout the series. Humanity was ignorant of the dark forest, and Tri-Solaris knew that. Further, they're able to suppress the Sun's broadcast capability. From their vantage point there was no feasible way for humanity to become aware of the dark forest. Their misunderstanding of humans is a central plot point. By every single measure Tri-Solaris had the advantage in a massive way. > Why? They have their stealth probe It was not stealthy. Humanity literally saw the probe pull ahead of the fleet and knew the probe was coming 50+ years before it arrived. Sometimes hiding behind an asteroid or planet is not stealth. > They were destroyed because their coordinates were broadcasted. No, the Tri-Solaris civilization still existed near the end of the universe. Their planet was destroyed, but they lived on as a space faring species. > How? They aren't any less stealthy than sattelites, tv, or radio. Do you recall what light-speed capable ships do to the fabric of the universe?
  - ajuc 8y ago
    > Humanity was ignorant of the dark forest, and Tri-Solaris knew that Tri-Solaris knew only what their sect was aware of, not what everyone on Earth thought. Also - they were somehow aware of the dark forest, would be very naive to think others can't discover it on their own. They were clearly considering it a real threat, because they tried to stop him and reacted so quickly when the guy staring at the wall did the experimental star demolition. > Humanity literally saw the probe pull ahead of the fleet and knew the probe was coming 50+ years before it arrived. Wasn't it only seen because they were already looking there? I might misremember something. > Further, they're able to suppress the Sun's broadcast capability. Only after the girl is chosen as the person to hold MAD button, IIRC. At that point the decisions on invasion were made centuries ago. Counting on that happening would be crazy. > Do you recall what light-speed capable ships do to the fabric of the universe? Not really, I ignored most of that 3rd book technobabble because it was unphysical. They were destroying universe and making it 2d or something? Anyway, why should it matter? Habitats are supposed to orbit somewhere pleasant, like any dumb rock would do, not move at light speed. > No, the Tri-Solaris civilization still existed near the end of the universe. Their planet was destroyed, but they lived on as a space faring species. My bad, don't remember everything from the book. Still - this only proves my point - it's possible, so they should have done that from the start. They were never in "existential danger", just lazy (but still somehow happy to spend lots of resources, effort, and risk to live on Earth).

ajuc 8y ago

> If ant colonies depend on MAD for continued existence, it means nothing to us. But we're not an ant colony to them, we're already using technology that can be used for MAD (sending signals through the sun), and they know it from the start. > Earth was an un-imaginable eden to Tri-Solaris, it's made clear that they wanted the planet intact. As far as I understand every planet in the system was heaven for them, the orbit was important. Which is stupid, because you can make anything follow a circular orbit around some star. > This [flu] requires a much longer timeline as multiple trips are required to carry out the plan. Why? They have their stealth probe (don't remember how it was called), they can take a look at a spanish influenza or something and pimp it up a little. At worst they then need to send like 1 gram at almost light speed the conventional way - still much easier and faster than sending the armada. > Given that you are saying they were stupid for not building space habitats, you must not be aware of what actually happened to the Tri-Solarans :). They were destroyed because their coordinates were broadcasted. As they should expect from the start messing with civilization that broadcasted "hello". > those space habitats present their own form of danger to their inhabitants. Actually, the danger they pose is worse than existing on a planet. How? They aren't any less stealthy than sattelites, tv, or radio.

lsadam0 8y ago
* More Spoilers * > But we're not an ant colony to them Tri-Solaris technologically stomps humanity throughout the series. Humanity was ignorant of the dark forest, and Tri-Solaris knew that. Further, they're able to suppress the Sun's broadcast capability. From their vantage point there was no feasible way for humanity to become aware of the dark forest. Their misunderstanding of humans is a central plot point. By every single measure Tri-Solaris had the advantage in a massive way. > Why? They have their stealth probe It was not stealthy. Humanity literally saw the probe pull ahead of the fleet and knew the probe was coming 50+ years before it arrived. Sometimes hiding behind an asteroid or planet is not stealth. > They were destroyed because their coordinates were broadcasted. No, the Tri-Solaris civilization still existed near the end of the universe. Their planet was destroyed, but they lived on as a space faring species. > How? They aren't any less stealthy than sattelites, tv, or radio. Do you recall what light-speed capable ships do to the fabric of the universe?
- ajuc 8y ago
  > Humanity was ignorant of the dark forest, and Tri-Solaris knew that Tri-Solaris knew only what their sect was aware of, not what everyone on Earth thought. Also - they were somehow aware of the dark forest, would be very naive to think others can't discover it on their own. They were clearly considering it a real threat, because they tried to stop him and reacted so quickly when the guy staring at the wall did the experimental star demolition. > Humanity literally saw the probe pull ahead of the fleet and knew the probe was coming 50+ years before it arrived. Wasn't it only seen because they were already looking there? I might misremember something. > Further, they're able to suppress the Sun's broadcast capability. Only after the girl is chosen as the person to hold MAD button, IIRC. At that point the decisions on invasion were made centuries ago. Counting on that happening would be crazy. > Do you recall what light-speed capable ships do to the fabric of the universe? Not really, I ignored most of that 3rd book technobabble because it was unphysical. They were destroying universe and making it 2d or something? Anyway, why should it matter? Habitats are supposed to orbit somewhere pleasant, like any dumb rock would do, not move at light speed. > No, the Tri-Solaris civilization still existed near the end of the universe. Their planet was destroyed, but they lived on as a space faring species. My bad, don't remember everything from the book. Still - this only proves my point - it's possible, so they should have done that from the start. They were never in "existential danger", just lazy (but still somehow happy to spend lots of resources, effort, and risk to live on Earth).