I think he/she meant something different: it's not about how big/small are the chances, but about how much we know on the probability distribution. You assume

I think he/she meant something different: it's not about how big/small are the chances, but about how much we know on the probability distribution. You assume you know the probability distributions, you compare them and determine that nuclear will kill less than coal burning. Except that you might have never observed a black swan event before (eg. massive sabotage of nuclear plants). So the probability distributions you inferred from past events might be wrong. The case of a lottery is different as the probability distribution of outcomes can be determined with certainty.