I'm not sure that's true. Andrew Gelman once mentioned that Black Swan events are actually routinely _overpriced_ via the Longshot Bias. [1] He had talked abou

I'm not sure that's true. Andrew Gelman once mentioned that Black Swan events are actually routinely _overpriced_ via the Longshot Bias. [1] He had talked about this in the context of the recent Leicester FC win and the odds on that team. [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias [2] http://andrewgelman.com/2016/06/02/30183/ http://andrewgelman.com/2016/06/02/30183/