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In most variations of such a calculation the expected number of planets would be 0. The fact that the actual answer is >= 1 might suggest that the calculation i
by Lon7 9y ago
In most variations of such a calculation the expected number of planets would be 0. The fact that the actual answer is >= 1 might suggest that the calculation is not an accurate representation of reality.
- monktastic1 9y agoI'm not sure I'm understanding. It is a well-defined probability question to ask about the "expected number" of planets with life if there are 10^24 of them each with probability 10^-24, and the answer is 1.
- V-2 9y agoYes it will be approaching 1, the same as for 10^24 coin tosses the number of heads would be approaching 50% (or 5*(10^23)).
- monktastic1 9y agoGiven the definition of "expected value," it is identically 1 (as opposed to merely "approaching it"). Sorry, I'm not trying to be pedantic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
- V-2 9y agoYou're absolutely correct - not being a native English speaker, I read "expected value" as a common phrase, not a probability theory term. Thanks