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Assuming lithium reserves work anything like oil reserves, the quantity of reserves depends on market process. When oil sells for $20/bb, oil that costs more t

Assuming lithium reserves work anything like oil reserves, the quantity of reserves depends on market process. When oil sells for $20/bb, oil that costs more than that to extract doesn't count towards the reserves. As the price goes up, the reserves increase, because you can extract oil from more challenging circumstances. This is why we've had 20-30 years of oil reserves for the last 50 years.

monort 9y ago
Oil alarmism existed as early as 1919: http://papers.sae.org/190011/ http://papers.sae.org/190011/
- sgift 9y ago
  So, it took almost 100 years until the mainstream understood what should have been blatantly obvious to anyone who thinks about it: Oh right. Oil is limited. I mean, sure, if we search long and hard enough we will probably almost always be able to find/produce something, but I don't think asking 1 million per liter of gas would be such a great idea. Hoping that there will always be a scientific breakthrough just "right in time" to solve our resource problems is great. I love optimism. It's also extremely irresponsible to depend on it.
- coldtea 9y ago
  You mean "oil cautionism" based on the very well established fact that reserves are limited (and it took the billions of years to be created)?
  - Roboprog 9y ago
    Or perhaps “only” 200 million years or so But yah, a one time thing for us.
tomxor 9y ago
That is a big assumption but yes, I understand that "reserves" != "all", and you rightly describe the interrelationship between price and what is considered "extractable". Even so, as an initial "world reserves" estimate, it's absolutely puny. Take into consideration that past the first "dozen years" demand will increase massively, at full adoption lithium will likely be short lived as a primary material to base batteries on. We don't know the extraction potential for whatever the "remaining" and "unknown" reserves are but thankfully EVs aren't intrinsically tied to lithium like ICE is to oil, so if lithium becomes overmined we are more likely to switch to other materials than go to extremes to extract more of it.
srtjstjsj 9y ago
That means that "oil reserves" is a short-term financial concept that has no bearing on long-term planning discussions.

monort 9y ago

Oil alarmism existed as early as 1919: http://papers.sae.org/190011/ http://papers.sae.org/190011/

sgift 9y ago
So, it took almost 100 years until the mainstream understood what should have been blatantly obvious to anyone who thinks about it: Oh right. Oil is limited. I mean, sure, if we search long and hard enough we will probably almost always be able to find/produce something, but I don't think asking 1 million per liter of gas would be such a great idea. Hoping that there will always be a scientific breakthrough just "right in time" to solve our resource problems is great. I love optimism. It's also extremely irresponsible to depend on it.
coldtea 9y ago
You mean "oil cautionism" based on the very well established fact that reserves are limited (and it took the billions of years to be created)?
- Roboprog 9y ago
  Or perhaps “only” 200 million years or so But yah, a one time thing for us.

tomxor 9y ago

That is a big assumption but yes, I understand that "reserves" != "all", and you rightly describe the interrelationship between price and what is considered "extractable". Even so, as an initial "world reserves" estimate, it's absolutely puny. Take into consideration that past the first "dozen years" demand will increase massively, at full adoption lithium will likely be short lived as a primary material to base batteries on. We don't know the extraction potential for whatever the "remaining" and "unknown" reserves are but thankfully EVs aren't intrinsically tied to lithium like ICE is to oil, so if lithium becomes overmined we are more likely to switch to other materials than go to extremes to extract more of it.

srtjstjsj 9y ago

That means that "oil reserves" is a short-term financial concept that has no bearing on long-term planning discussions.