5 ms·

(EU national in London) Not at all. I think the doomsday threats are overblown and the negotiating parties will reach a mutually beneficial deal at the 11th hou

(EU national in London) Not at all. I think the doomsday threats are overblown and the negotiating parties will reach a mutually beneficial deal at the 11th hour. Much more concerned about the possibility of the current Labour party gaining power actually.

maxehmookau 9y ago
This is wishful thinking, to put it mildly. What on earth concerns you about a labour government?
- Jdam 9y ago
  Maybe Corbyn, who's apparently a Marxist? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4483990/David-Gauke-warns-Labour-s-UK-hard-left-experiment.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4483990/David-Gauke-... To me, that's a higher threat than Brexit.
  - maxehmookau 9y ago
    The Daily Mail isn't even an acceptable source on Wikipedia let alone on HN.
    - Jdam 9y ago
      Okay. But is The Guardian acceptable in your political view? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/19/marxist-corbyn-revolution-ken-livingstone-labour https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/19/marxis...
      - vertex-four 9y ago
        Meh, that is not a critique of Corbyn as a Marxist, it's using communism as a scare word without delving into what Marxism actually is and why Corbyn matches the definition. Do you have a critique by someone who actually knows what Marxism is? I can find plenty of descriptions of many politicians as Fascist (and usually better researched than this), doesn't mean most of them are.
        pjc50 9y ago
        Specifically that article is by Damian McBride, who was Gordon Brown's SPAD. It's continuation of a political brawl by means of a newspaper column. Not a very nice chap: "On 11 April 2009, he resigned his position after it emerged on a political blog that he and another Labour Party advisor, Derek Draper, had exchanged emails discussing the possibility of disseminating rumours McBride had fabricated about the private lives of some Conservative Party politicians and their spouses. The emails from McBride had been sent from his No. 10 Downing Street email account."
        cmsd2 9y ago
        Chris Dillow is a good read on this topic http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2017/09/mcdonnells-marxist-critics.html http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbli...
      - maxehmookau 9y ago
        I didn't say anything about my political view. I said the Daily Mail is not acceptable as a source in Wikipedia. Which it is not.
    - Yetanfou 9y ago
      In this case there are plenty of sources saying the same thing so it does not make sense to shoot the messenger. https://www.startpage.com/do/search?q=corbyn+marxism https://www.startpage.com/do/search?q=corbyn+marxism
      - maxehmookau 9y ago
        A web search doesn't count as research. No reputable journalist in the UK genuinely believes that Corbyn is a marxist. It's lazy 'googling' about 'facts' that landed America with Trump.
        Yetanfou 9y ago
        A web search is not meant to count as research, it is the equivalent of a library catalogue search. You're meant to follow the links and find out what is written on the subject. It is the internet equivalent of a literature study and as such a form or research. The assumption here is that the reader is intelligent enough to be able to separate authoritative sources from hearsay and agenda-based publications. By the way, using terms like "no reputable journalist" is called "Master suppression technique" or "domination technique" [1]. It is detrimental to having a fact-based discussion and generally seen as a cop-out for those who don't have real arguments to add to the discussion. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master_suppression_technique https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master_suppression_technique
- ralmidani 9y ago
  Aside from tolerance for Antisemitism, being soft on Russia, picking and choosing on human rights (e.g. Syria), and appealing to base instincts on immigration (Eastern Europeans are keeping your wages down), what's so bad about Corbyn-led Labour?
  - pjc50 9y ago
    Don't all of those apply to conservative party as well? (Perhaps substitute Islamophobia for antisemitism)
    - abritinthebay 9y ago
      Yes, yes they do. Except more so.
  - maxehmookau 9y ago
    Oh I see. It's Corbyn's right-wing credentials that put you off him. Of course.
    - ralmidani 9y ago
      I'm neither left nor right. Corbyn manages to bring together the worst of both worlds.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
      It doesn't matter how left-wing a politician appears to be, or even how left-wing they are in general; if they hold an odious reactionary opinion, they can be called out on that opinion.
  - zimablue 9y ago
    Antisemitism: mainstream Labour isn't antisemitic, that was largely a point pushed in our right media to discredit them. The left wing of the party is definitely anti-Israel though, and pro-Israel forces always try to conflate the two. The Labour party is much, much less racist than the Tory party on average, it's the sort of thing that's hard to prove with a neat fact you just have to spend time in a pub with either side or read a lot of their literature for dog-whistles. soft on Russia: who knows, it's not like we have the military clout for it to matter much picking and choosing on human rights: doesn't everyone immigration racism - no, Corbyn's message (that i also disagree with actually) is to redirect the focus onto exploitative employers. It's his talking point on immigration along with NHS staffing, every time. The labour party has gotten worse on this but they're still miles behind the Tories Sorry to do politics on HN but this post needed to be called out, none of these points are a combination of relevant and applying more to Labour than the Tories.
- curtisblaine 9y ago
  Taxes are concerning. More taxes on the medium-upper class.
bonniemuffin 9y ago
Yeah, I spent most of last year having thoughts like this about Trump becoming president. He'll never get nominated.... he won't win.... yeah but surely something will happen at the 11th hour, he can't possibly become president, it's too crazy... And now look where we are. I'm not sure your optimism is warranted. We're living in strange times.
- Boothroid 9y ago
  US economy is doing pretty well under Trump, no?
  - mattgibson 9y ago
    Trump has done almost nothing to change it. It's doing well because of Obama.
    - mi100hael 9y ago
      We're coming up on a year of record highs. How long does one have to wait until a President is allowed to take credit?
      - zeveb 9y ago
        > How long does one have to wait until a President is allowed to take credit? Depends on whether the hearer likes or dislikes him.
      - abritinthebay 9y ago
        At the very least until their first budget goes into effect. This is not a new concept. It's why the stupid right wing memes in like.. April were all "Obamas first 100 days vs Trumps first 100" - because Obama was dealing with the freaking recession and the Bush policies and budget. Again - this is not new.
      - pjc50 9y ago
        People should describe a policy, and a means for that policy to have made a difference to the economy, when taking credit. Otherwise it's like taking credit for the sun rising.
barrkel 9y ago
I think the chances of a deal are about 70% and trending lower. The only fudge that can work at the 11th hour is staying in the EU in all but name; there is no way the EU can agree to something non-disruptive quickly without risking it continuing on indefinitely, which means it needs to be almost identical to what went before. And I don't think the Tories can sell that to either the public or their own membership. A mutually beneficial deal will never happen; the UK cannot come out of Brexit better than before. Any mutual benefit can only come after the UK has climbed out of a pit scary enough to put off any further risk of countries leaving. If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though, and the risks all seem to be on the downside - painting the EU as intransigent and punishing.
- johneth 9y ago
  > If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though I think it might. Polls on the subject have been tightening, and even showing signs of moving towards halting leaving[1]. I think as more of the leave voters die off (as they were predominantly older voters), and realisations about the actual real-world consequences of leaving filter through to the public consciousness, the process may be halted, softened, or reversed. That's mostly conjecture (and hope, honestly) on my part, though. [1] https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/918740988365074432 https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/918740988365074432
pjc50 9y ago
> negotiating parties will reach a mutually beneficial deal at the 11th hour Compare with the situation of Greece. There was essentially very little change in the EU position, and Greece eventually realised they had no leverage and would be worse off outside the EU and had to acquiesce. The only deals that have a chance of happening are "forget the whole thing, no Brexit" or maybe "Norway" (EEA including free movement, but no voting rights). "No deal" would be a disaster. And if it's left until the 11th hour plenty of companies will have no choice but to avoid planning beyond that time. Like Ryanair pointing out that they can't take bookings without knowing what legal framework will be in place: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/ryanair-chief-michael-oleary-discuss-brexit-effect-aviation/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/ryanair-chief-mic... Addendum: this article by Gordon Guthrie, Erlanger and former extremely minor politician, sums up the lack of choice: https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/no-deal-wont-happen-e185f9b0185 https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/no-deal-wont-happen-e185f9...
- bostik 9y ago
  The 11th hour is already at hand. Some pretty big players are ready to trigger their contingency plans if certainty about future remains unclear: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/eu-transition-deal-is-needed-quickly-to-stop-city-firms-leaving-uk-says-bank-official https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/eu-transiti...
- gordonguthrie 9y ago
  Minor politician, ya cheeky git ;-)

maxehmookau 9y ago

This is wishful thinking, to put it mildly. What on earth concerns you about a labour government?

Jdam 9y ago
Maybe Corbyn, who's apparently a Marxist? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4483990/David-Gauke-warns-Labour-s-UK-hard-left-experiment.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4483990/David-Gauke-... To me, that's a higher threat than Brexit.
- maxehmookau 9y ago
  The Daily Mail isn't even an acceptable source on Wikipedia let alone on HN.
  - Jdam 9y ago
    Okay. But is The Guardian acceptable in your political view? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/19/marxist-corbyn-revolution-ken-livingstone-labour https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/19/marxis...
    - vertex-four 9y ago
      Meh, that is not a critique of Corbyn as a Marxist, it's using communism as a scare word without delving into what Marxism actually is and why Corbyn matches the definition. Do you have a critique by someone who actually knows what Marxism is? I can find plenty of descriptions of many politicians as Fascist (and usually better researched than this), doesn't mean most of them are.
      - pjc50 9y ago
        Specifically that article is by Damian McBride, who was Gordon Brown's SPAD. It's continuation of a political brawl by means of a newspaper column. Not a very nice chap: "On 11 April 2009, he resigned his position after it emerged on a political blog that he and another Labour Party advisor, Derek Draper, had exchanged emails discussing the possibility of disseminating rumours McBride had fabricated about the private lives of some Conservative Party politicians and their spouses. The emails from McBride had been sent from his No. 10 Downing Street email account."
      - cmsd2 9y ago
        Chris Dillow is a good read on this topic http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2017/09/mcdonnells-marxist-critics.html http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbli...
    - maxehmookau 9y ago
      I didn't say anything about my political view. I said the Daily Mail is not acceptable as a source in Wikipedia. Which it is not.
  - Yetanfou 9y ago
    In this case there are plenty of sources saying the same thing so it does not make sense to shoot the messenger. https://www.startpage.com/do/search?q=corbyn+marxism https://www.startpage.com/do/search?q=corbyn+marxism
    - maxehmookau 9y ago
      A web search doesn't count as research. No reputable journalist in the UK genuinely believes that Corbyn is a marxist. It's lazy 'googling' about 'facts' that landed America with Trump.
      - Yetanfou 9y ago
        A web search is not meant to count as research, it is the equivalent of a library catalogue search. You're meant to follow the links and find out what is written on the subject. It is the internet equivalent of a literature study and as such a form or research. The assumption here is that the reader is intelligent enough to be able to separate authoritative sources from hearsay and agenda-based publications. By the way, using terms like "no reputable journalist" is called "Master suppression technique" or "domination technique" [1]. It is detrimental to having a fact-based discussion and generally seen as a cop-out for those who don't have real arguments to add to the discussion. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master_suppression_technique https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master_suppression_technique
ralmidani 9y ago
Aside from tolerance for Antisemitism, being soft on Russia, picking and choosing on human rights (e.g. Syria), and appealing to base instincts on immigration (Eastern Europeans are keeping your wages down), what's so bad about Corbyn-led Labour?
- pjc50 9y ago
  Don't all of those apply to conservative party as well? (Perhaps substitute Islamophobia for antisemitism)
  - abritinthebay 9y ago
    Yes, yes they do. Except more so.
- maxehmookau 9y ago
  Oh I see. It's Corbyn's right-wing credentials that put you off him. Of course.
  - ralmidani 9y ago
    I'm neither left nor right. Corbyn manages to bring together the worst of both worlds.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
    It doesn't matter how left-wing a politician appears to be, or even how left-wing they are in general; if they hold an odious reactionary opinion, they can be called out on that opinion.
- zimablue 9y ago
  Antisemitism: mainstream Labour isn't antisemitic, that was largely a point pushed in our right media to discredit them. The left wing of the party is definitely anti-Israel though, and pro-Israel forces always try to conflate the two. The Labour party is much, much less racist than the Tory party on average, it's the sort of thing that's hard to prove with a neat fact you just have to spend time in a pub with either side or read a lot of their literature for dog-whistles. soft on Russia: who knows, it's not like we have the military clout for it to matter much picking and choosing on human rights: doesn't everyone immigration racism - no, Corbyn's message (that i also disagree with actually) is to redirect the focus onto exploitative employers. It's his talking point on immigration along with NHS staffing, every time. The labour party has gotten worse on this but they're still miles behind the Tories Sorry to do politics on HN but this post needed to be called out, none of these points are a combination of relevant and applying more to Labour than the Tories.
curtisblaine 9y ago
Taxes are concerning. More taxes on the medium-upper class.

bonniemuffin 9y ago

Yeah, I spent most of last year having thoughts like this about Trump becoming president. He'll never get nominated.... he won't win.... yeah but surely something will happen at the 11th hour, he can't possibly become president, it's too crazy... And now look where we are. I'm not sure your optimism is warranted. We're living in strange times.

Boothroid 9y ago
US economy is doing pretty well under Trump, no?
- mattgibson 9y ago
  Trump has done almost nothing to change it. It's doing well because of Obama.
  - mi100hael 9y ago
    We're coming up on a year of record highs. How long does one have to wait until a President is allowed to take credit?
    - zeveb 9y ago
      > How long does one have to wait until a President is allowed to take credit? Depends on whether the hearer likes or dislikes him.
    - abritinthebay 9y ago
      At the very least until their first budget goes into effect. This is not a new concept. It's why the stupid right wing memes in like.. April were all "Obamas first 100 days vs Trumps first 100" - because Obama was dealing with the freaking recession and the Bush policies and budget. Again - this is not new.
    - pjc50 9y ago
      People should describe a policy, and a means for that policy to have made a difference to the economy, when taking credit. Otherwise it's like taking credit for the sun rising.

barrkel 9y ago

I think the chances of a deal are about 70% and trending lower. The only fudge that can work at the 11th hour is staying in the EU in all but name; there is no way the EU can agree to something non-disruptive quickly without risking it continuing on indefinitely, which means it needs to be almost identical to what went before. And I don't think the Tories can sell that to either the public or their own membership. A mutually beneficial deal will never happen; the UK cannot come out of Brexit better than before. Any mutual benefit can only come after the UK has climbed out of a pit scary enough to put off any further risk of countries leaving. If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though, and the risks all seem to be on the downside - painting the EU as intransigent and punishing.

johneth 9y ago
> If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though I think it might. Polls on the subject have been tightening, and even showing signs of moving towards halting leaving[1]. I think as more of the leave voters die off (as they were predominantly older voters), and realisations about the actual real-world consequences of leaving filter through to the public consciousness, the process may be halted, softened, or reversed. That's mostly conjecture (and hope, honestly) on my part, though. [1] https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/918740988365074432 https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/918740988365074432

pjc50 9y ago

> negotiating parties will reach a mutually beneficial deal at the 11th hour Compare with the situation of Greece. There was essentially very little change in the EU position, and Greece eventually realised they had no leverage and would be worse off outside the EU and had to acquiesce. The only deals that have a chance of happening are "forget the whole thing, no Brexit" or maybe "Norway" (EEA including free movement, but no voting rights). "No deal" would be a disaster. And if it's left until the 11th hour plenty of companies will have no choice but to avoid planning beyond that time. Like Ryanair pointing out that they can't take bookings without knowing what legal framework will be in place: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/ryanair-chief-michael-oleary-discuss-brexit-effect-aviation/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/ryanair-chief-mic... Addendum: this article by Gordon Guthrie, Erlanger and former extremely minor politician, sums up the lack of choice: https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/no-deal-wont-happen-e185f9b0185 https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/no-deal-wont-happen-e185f9...

bostik 9y ago
The 11th hour is already at hand. Some pretty big players are ready to trigger their contingency plans if certainty about future remains unclear: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/eu-transition-deal-is-needed-quickly-to-stop-city-firms-leaving-uk-says-bank-official https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/eu-transiti...
gordonguthrie 9y ago
Minor politician, ya cheeky git ;-)