8 ms·

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run those cars through the auction, they will have to book the full losses. Say they anticipated 20% repossession rate and that they would get 80% on the dollar when auctioned on those losses. When they run them through now and get 50% on the dollar, their securitization pools will be creamed.

dshibarshin 9y ago
The overseas markets can't seem to get enough of the Leafs. I've seen trucks full of Leafs delivered for export to places such as Ukraine.
- DigitalJack 9y ago
  Saw zero leafs during my week in London. Same with a week in Glasgow. Boat loads of prius’ though.
  - sgt101 9y ago
    There are quite a few round here (rural Suffolk, UK) I've seen a few in London, Nissan don't seem to market them very hard in the UK.
  - Symbiote 9y ago
    The UK is the third biggest market for Leafs, 20,000 sold. http://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/uk/en-gb/media/pressreleases/426191418/nissan-leaf-charges-to-20000-uk-sales-as-all-electric-favourite-is-named-best-green-car-in-2017-driv http://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/uk/en-gb/media/pressreleas...
  - tolien 9y ago
    As well as private owners, both places have a car club using them too [1] - I guess it’s possible the low value makes them more attractive for that use. http://www.co-wheels.org.uk/electric_vehicles http://www.co-wheels.org.uk/electric_vehicles
  - BitterAmethyst 9y ago
    I've seen a few around Cambridge, very noticeable as a cycling since they sound so different.
- kozak 9y ago
  I can confirm that used Leafs from the USA are very popular here in Kyiv. They sell for something around 18000 USD, are about three years old, and are said to have freshly replaced batteries (which may or may not be true).
matt_wulfeck 9y ago
Man I've been looking for a decently priced leaf for a long time. I'd like to attend an auction like this in the Bay Area. It may be this location but Craigslist is pretty slim pickings.
- wickawic 9y ago
  I think Manheim is a wholesale auction, unfortunately
  - Robotbeat 9y ago
    Sounds like we have a solution: open up the auction for individual buyers to keep auction prices up.
    - URSpider94 9y ago
      Opening up the auction to private individuals doesn't bring more buyers, as the brokers are just middlemen -- all the cars they buy get passed on to end customers in a matter of weeks. It may bring more money, if people are willing to pay more to disintermediate the brokers. However, this adds a lot of headache and risk for the auction operator - tons of uneducated customers who won't be able to pay, try to back out of bids, get pissed when the car has defects (auctions are typically as-is affairs), crowd the lot, etc. However - if you see a car you want coming up, try asking a local broker to buy it for you for a flat fee, a few hundred bucks over the closing price. It's a guaranteed sale for them with no hassle ...
      - danielharrison 9y ago
        This is what I do. Friend of a friend is a dealer. He's at the auctions every other day. I just put in an order with him and he'll call me when he finds something good. I trust him. Having had a bad deal yet. Charges $400.
  - petecooper 9y ago
    Manheim policy may vary across the world, but here in the UK they're open to private buyers on most lots. My nearest auction house is Saltash, Plymouth and twice/weekly sales and upwards of 200 vehicles go through the books. It's quite something to see a car brought to the line, bid on and sold in 2 minutes. Private buyers pay a larger commission per sale compared to bulk buyers, but hammer price is the same. There's a twice-yearly plate change in the UK also, so in the coming weeks (from Sep 1) there will be a glut of used cars traded as part exchange for new vehicles.
samstave 9y ago
this and the below comments just show that cars are, in general, ridiculously overpriced. Instead of "universal basic income" - we should have "free cars for every individual" -- Look at how THAT would affect autonomous driverless cars!!!
- dsr_ 9y ago
  The incentives there are wildly misplaced. With UBI, you get money. You can spend it on whatever you need or want. With "Universal Cars" you get a car. If you already had one, you probably need to sell one or the other. But now everyone has a car, so the resale value crashes to nearly scrap. If you keep it, you need to pay for insurance, maintenance, and actual usage, which may or may not be a net positive. Let's suppose you don't already have a car. Why not? If you live in a city, you may not have a need for a car. Selling it won't help much. Parking may be impossible or too expensive. Perhaps you cannot drive a car. This car is going to be useless to you. On the upside, it bolsters the car manufacturing industry. On the other hand, many mechanics will go out of business because it will be cheaper to get a different car than fix the one you have. On the gripping hand, expect gigantic traffic jams, rising fuel prices, and soaring pollution levels.
  - neilwilson 9y ago
    "With UBI, you get money. You can spend it on whatever you need or want" As long as you have a slave class doing the producing who are forced to take your money. Otherwise you just get inflation because you haven't added anything to the supply of production side.
    - dsr_ 9y ago
      If your mental model is based on a single self-sufficient town plus outlying farms that does no trading and never improves their technology, I can see how you would come to that conclusion. But that's not the world we live in.
FussyZeus 9y ago
I mean does this really shock anyone? There are like no less than 20 used lots in my city alone (which is hardly a metro hub) all of which have probably at least a hundred used cars on the lot. And that's JUST the used dealership market, not even counting the new dealers, the private sellers, the rental places getting rid of cars, or anybody else I'm not thinking of. There are actual quantifiable fuckloads of cars in the states. It's really a wonder there's enough customers to feed this industry at all, ability to pay the financing notwithstanding.
- cylinder 9y ago
  In 2012 there were actually less cars per capita in the US than many parts of Europe including Italy. The difference is that in the US, auto financing is ridiculously easy for purchase and lease, combined with the general financial irresponsibility of the population, you see a lot of new and expensive cars driven by people with below average incomes and they return the lease and get a new car every few years whereas in other countries people drive their cars into the ground.
jpmattia 9y ago
> When they run them through now and get 50% on the dollar, their securitization pools will be creamed. Amazing that mark-to-market is still not restored 10 years after its suspension.
- dredmorbius 9y ago
  That's not the full story. It's that the trading market is sufficiently thin that even a few hundred units of freshly off-lease vehicles will crash the price. David Gerard makes a similar point of Bitcoin in Attach of the 50 Foot Blockhain -- that "market capitalisation" of crytpocurrencies is complete nonsense, due to market thinness. Rather, you want to look at total transaction volume. A large player can move the market significantly on a very small number of trades. Price, it turns out, is far more like pressure than volume. Punch a large hole in something, and it falls rapidly. Squeeze it to a small point, and you can keep it quite high, but on very small total quantity.
  - davidgerard 9y ago
    > Price, it turns out, is far more like pressure than volume. Or voltage, as we sorta worked out on G+ :-)
    - dredmorbius 9y ago
      Right. Which is a pressure-analogue.
aphextron 9y ago
Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with <50k miles and ~75% of battery life remaining right now. When you factor in zero cost of maintenance and zero cost for fuel over a lifetime of 2-3 years, and HOV access, it's the single most perfectly designed commuter car to ever exist IMO. I just bought one last month and it's the best car I've ever owned. Having a bunch of free chargers nearby means my total monthly cost to commute ~20 miles a day is a $75 insurance payment. Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.
- gnicholas 9y ago
  Any advice on how to make sure you're getting a good one, or where to get one? We considered Leafs several years ago, but the range wasn't quite good enough for our needs. Since then, our needs have decreased and range has increased a bit. Would love to trade in one of our 25 mpg vehicles for a Leaf. Plenty of chargers around Palo Alto, including at work!
  - aphextron 9y ago
    Make sure the battery has at least 8 bars left. There's two gauges on the dash: current charge and battery capacity. Capacity is the skinnier one on the right [0]. If you find one still within the warranty window below 8 bars, Nissan will even replace the battery free [1]. Also make sure you get one with a quick charge port, it's worth every penny. Other than that you really can't go wrong. http://www.plugincars.com/sites/default/files/leaf-dash-bars.jpg http://www.plugincars.com/sites/default/files/leaf-dash-bars... [0] https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf/charging-range/battery/#battery-warranty https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf/charging-range/... [1]
    - hunter2_ 9y ago
      Not an owner, but I think those two points work against each other a bit. How much, I'm not sure, but slower charging does preserve capacity. If you have no plans for long trips where you need to charge during a meal, and will always be charging overnight or while at work, batteries that haven't had to deal with faster charging could be better.
thebigspacefuck 9y ago
In CO you could get a Leaf for $8K with tax credits, at least until the end of June this year. There were tons of brand new ones on eBay going for ~$10K when I checked.
- akhilcacharya 9y ago
  $8k? How? Our local electric utility ran a $10k discount on the new high end models recently and I thought that was a bargain.
  - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
    San Diego has them at 1/3rd of list price once you take into account state, federal and utility incentives: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/bmw-nissan-dangle-20-000-incentives-to-spur-san-diego-ev-sales https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/bmw-nissa...
collyw 9y ago
So we don't actually get a free market so that the banks can maximize their profit.
yuhong 9y ago
And now there is Harvey...

dshibarshin 9y ago

The overseas markets can't seem to get enough of the Leafs. I've seen trucks full of Leafs delivered for export to places such as Ukraine.

DigitalJack 9y ago
Saw zero leafs during my week in London. Same with a week in Glasgow. Boat loads of prius’ though.
- sgt101 9y ago
  There are quite a few round here (rural Suffolk, UK) I've seen a few in London, Nissan don't seem to market them very hard in the UK.
- Symbiote 9y ago
  The UK is the third biggest market for Leafs, 20,000 sold. http://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/uk/en-gb/media/pressreleases/426191418/nissan-leaf-charges-to-20000-uk-sales-as-all-electric-favourite-is-named-best-green-car-in-2017-driv http://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/uk/en-gb/media/pressreleas...
- tolien 9y ago
  As well as private owners, both places have a car club using them too [1] - I guess it’s possible the low value makes them more attractive for that use. http://www.co-wheels.org.uk/electric_vehicles http://www.co-wheels.org.uk/electric_vehicles
- BitterAmethyst 9y ago
  I've seen a few around Cambridge, very noticeable as a cycling since they sound so different.
kozak 9y ago
I can confirm that used Leafs from the USA are very popular here in Kyiv. They sell for something around 18000 USD, are about three years old, and are said to have freshly replaced batteries (which may or may not be true).

matt_wulfeck 9y ago

Man I've been looking for a decently priced leaf for a long time. I'd like to attend an auction like this in the Bay Area. It may be this location but Craigslist is pretty slim pickings.

wickawic 9y ago
I think Manheim is a wholesale auction, unfortunately
- Robotbeat 9y ago
  Sounds like we have a solution: open up the auction for individual buyers to keep auction prices up.
  - URSpider94 9y ago
    Opening up the auction to private individuals doesn't bring more buyers, as the brokers are just middlemen -- all the cars they buy get passed on to end customers in a matter of weeks. It may bring more money, if people are willing to pay more to disintermediate the brokers. However, this adds a lot of headache and risk for the auction operator - tons of uneducated customers who won't be able to pay, try to back out of bids, get pissed when the car has defects (auctions are typically as-is affairs), crowd the lot, etc. However - if you see a car you want coming up, try asking a local broker to buy it for you for a flat fee, a few hundred bucks over the closing price. It's a guaranteed sale for them with no hassle ...
    - danielharrison 9y ago
      This is what I do. Friend of a friend is a dealer. He's at the auctions every other day. I just put in an order with him and he'll call me when he finds something good. I trust him. Having had a bad deal yet. Charges $400.
- petecooper 9y ago
  Manheim policy may vary across the world, but here in the UK they're open to private buyers on most lots. My nearest auction house is Saltash, Plymouth and twice/weekly sales and upwards of 200 vehicles go through the books. It's quite something to see a car brought to the line, bid on and sold in 2 minutes. Private buyers pay a larger commission per sale compared to bulk buyers, but hammer price is the same. There's a twice-yearly plate change in the UK also, so in the coming weeks (from Sep 1) there will be a glut of used cars traded as part exchange for new vehicles.

samstave 9y ago

this and the below comments just show that cars are, in general, ridiculously overpriced. Instead of "universal basic income" - we should have "free cars for every individual" -- Look at how THAT would affect autonomous driverless cars!!!

dsr_ 9y ago
The incentives there are wildly misplaced. With UBI, you get money. You can spend it on whatever you need or want. With "Universal Cars" you get a car. If you already had one, you probably need to sell one or the other. But now everyone has a car, so the resale value crashes to nearly scrap. If you keep it, you need to pay for insurance, maintenance, and actual usage, which may or may not be a net positive. Let's suppose you don't already have a car. Why not? If you live in a city, you may not have a need for a car. Selling it won't help much. Parking may be impossible or too expensive. Perhaps you cannot drive a car. This car is going to be useless to you. On the upside, it bolsters the car manufacturing industry. On the other hand, many mechanics will go out of business because it will be cheaper to get a different car than fix the one you have. On the gripping hand, expect gigantic traffic jams, rising fuel prices, and soaring pollution levels.
- neilwilson 9y ago
  "With UBI, you get money. You can spend it on whatever you need or want" As long as you have a slave class doing the producing who are forced to take your money. Otherwise you just get inflation because you haven't added anything to the supply of production side.
  - dsr_ 9y ago
    If your mental model is based on a single self-sufficient town plus outlying farms that does no trading and never improves their technology, I can see how you would come to that conclusion. But that's not the world we live in.

FussyZeus 9y ago

I mean does this really shock anyone? There are like no less than 20 used lots in my city alone (which is hardly a metro hub) all of which have probably at least a hundred used cars on the lot. And that's JUST the used dealership market, not even counting the new dealers, the private sellers, the rental places getting rid of cars, or anybody else I'm not thinking of. There are actual quantifiable fuckloads of cars in the states. It's really a wonder there's enough customers to feed this industry at all, ability to pay the financing notwithstanding.

cylinder 9y ago
In 2012 there were actually less cars per capita in the US than many parts of Europe including Italy. The difference is that in the US, auto financing is ridiculously easy for purchase and lease, combined with the general financial irresponsibility of the population, you see a lot of new and expensive cars driven by people with below average incomes and they return the lease and get a new car every few years whereas in other countries people drive their cars into the ground.

jpmattia 9y ago

> When they run them through now and get 50% on the dollar, their securitization pools will be creamed. Amazing that mark-to-market is still not restored 10 years after its suspension.

dredmorbius 9y ago
That's not the full story. It's that the trading market is sufficiently thin that even a few hundred units of freshly off-lease vehicles will crash the price. David Gerard makes a similar point of Bitcoin in Attach of the 50 Foot Blockhain -- that "market capitalisation" of crytpocurrencies is complete nonsense, due to market thinness. Rather, you want to look at total transaction volume. A large player can move the market significantly on a very small number of trades. Price, it turns out, is far more like pressure than volume. Punch a large hole in something, and it falls rapidly. Squeeze it to a small point, and you can keep it quite high, but on very small total quantity.
- davidgerard 9y ago
  > Price, it turns out, is far more like pressure than volume. Or voltage, as we sorta worked out on G+ :-)
  - dredmorbius 9y ago
    Right. Which is a pressure-analogue.

aphextron 9y ago

Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with <50k miles and ~75% of battery life remaining right now. When you factor in zero cost of maintenance and zero cost for fuel over a lifetime of 2-3 years, and HOV access, it's the single most perfectly designed commuter car to ever exist IMO. I just bought one last month and it's the best car I've ever owned. Having a bunch of free chargers nearby means my total monthly cost to commute ~20 miles a day is a $75 insurance payment. Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.

gnicholas 9y ago
Any advice on how to make sure you're getting a good one, or where to get one? We considered Leafs several years ago, but the range wasn't quite good enough for our needs. Since then, our needs have decreased and range has increased a bit. Would love to trade in one of our 25 mpg vehicles for a Leaf. Plenty of chargers around Palo Alto, including at work!
- aphextron 9y ago
  Make sure the battery has at least 8 bars left. There's two gauges on the dash: current charge and battery capacity. Capacity is the skinnier one on the right [0]. If you find one still within the warranty window below 8 bars, Nissan will even replace the battery free [1]. Also make sure you get one with a quick charge port, it's worth every penny. Other than that you really can't go wrong. http://www.plugincars.com/sites/default/files/leaf-dash-bars.jpg http://www.plugincars.com/sites/default/files/leaf-dash-bars... [0] https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf/charging-range/battery/#battery-warranty https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf/charging-range/... [1]
  - hunter2_ 9y ago
    Not an owner, but I think those two points work against each other a bit. How much, I'm not sure, but slower charging does preserve capacity. If you have no plans for long trips where you need to charge during a meal, and will always be charging overnight or while at work, batteries that haven't had to deal with faster charging could be better.

thebigspacefuck 9y ago

In CO you could get a Leaf for $8K with tax credits, at least until the end of June this year. There were tons of brand new ones on eBay going for ~$10K when I checked.

akhilcacharya 9y ago
$8k? How? Our local electric utility ran a $10k discount on the new high end models recently and I thought that was a bargain.
- ZeroGravitas 9y ago
  San Diego has them at 1/3rd of list price once you take into account state, federal and utility incentives: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/bmw-nissan-dangle-20-000-incentives-to-spur-san-diego-ev-sales https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/bmw-nissa...

collyw 9y ago

So we don't actually get a free market so that the banks can maximize their profit.

yuhong 9y ago

And now there is Harvey...