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> the Arctic is a tremendous shortcut for shipping The Economist article says, "the much-vaunted sea passages are likely to carry only a trickle of trade". Do

> the Arctic is a tremendous shortcut for shipping The Economist article says, "the much-vaunted sea passages are likely to carry only a trickle of trade". Do you have any information on the prospective volume of trade? > it's surrounded solely by states with a strong rule of law, making piracy unlikely. For another reason too: Piracy usually is conducted by people.

niftich 9y ago
> Do you have any information on the prospective volume of trade? Not really, though COSCO (a top-5 shipper by capacity and market share [1]) expressed interest again in 2016 [2], sending 5 ships through; they were the first Chinese shipping company to send a ship this way in 2013 [3], and express a continued interest almost every year -- like in 2015 [4]. Russian forecasts are extremely ambitious to the point of being pure wishful thinking [5]. There are some challenges with the route [5][6], and not all shippers are on board, and of course global shipping has just had its lowest growth in years [7]. [1] https://www.alphaliner.com/top100/ https://www.alphaliner.com/top100/ [2] https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2016/10/cosco-sends-five-vessels-through-northern-sea-route https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy... [3] http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2013/08/first-container-ship-northern-sea-route-21-08 http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2013/08/first-container... [4] https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-shipper-cosco-to-schedule-regular-trans-arctic-sailings-1446133485 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-shipper-cosco-to-schedu... [5] https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2016/09/shipping-companies-snub-russian-arctic-route https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy... [6] http://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/moscow/feature-despite-russian-aspirations-international-26397694 http://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/moscow/feature-de... [7] http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/08/20/490621376/amid-industry-downturn-global-shipping-sees-record-low-growth http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/08/20/490621376/a...
- hackuser 9y ago
  Thanks for sharing all that and informing the rest of us.

niftich 9y ago

> Do you have any information on the prospective volume of trade? Not really, though COSCO (a top-5 shipper by capacity and market share [1]) expressed interest again in 2016 [2], sending 5 ships through; they were the first Chinese shipping company to send a ship this way in 2013 [3], and express a continued interest almost every year -- like in 2015 [4]. Russian forecasts are extremely ambitious to the point of being pure wishful thinking [5]. There are some challenges with the route [5][6], and not all shippers are on board, and of course global shipping has just had its lowest growth in years [7]. [1] https://www.alphaliner.com/top100/ https://www.alphaliner.com/top100/ [2] https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2016/10/cosco-sends-five-vessels-through-northern-sea-route https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy... [3] http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2013/08/first-container-ship-northern-sea-route-21-08 http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2013/08/first-container... [4] https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-shipper-cosco-to-schedule-regular-trans-arctic-sailings-1446133485 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-shipper-cosco-to-schedu... [5] https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2016/09/shipping-companies-snub-russian-arctic-route https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy... [6] http://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/moscow/feature-despite-russian-aspirations-international-26397694 http://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/moscow/feature-de... [7] http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/08/20/490621376/amid-industry-downturn-global-shipping-sees-record-low-growth http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/08/20/490621376/a...

hackuser 9y ago
Thanks for sharing all that and informing the rest of us.