The theory behind the singularity is all about exponential trends. But most exponential trends tend to turn into some kind of S-curve[1] after a while. This ins

The theory behind the singularity is all about exponential trends. But most exponential trends tend to turn into some kind of S-curve[1] after a while. This insight goes back to Thomas Malthus, even though he never derived the sigmoid function (as far as I know). The AI singularity could happen before the inflexion point of the S-curve, or some time after, or never. And as others have already commented, it depends on how you define "singularity". So I am not holding my breath waiting for the rapture. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function