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There are plenty of alternatives to statistics and expertise, as the sibling comment points out, letting people get on with things themselves (i.e. the default
by zigzigzag 10y ago
There are plenty of alternatives to statistics and expertise, as the sibling comment points out, letting people get on with things themselves (i.e. the default action of do nothing) is essentially a delegation to the wisdom of the crowds. Gut feeling and intuition are also alternatives people frequently rely on, and aren't necessarily nonsense: the brain is very good at synthesising conclusions at the level of the subconscious that surface consciously as hunches or gut feelings.
The "body of evidence" that self-proclaimed experts are frequently wrong is rarely presented statistically, but it could be so. However this would be circular, it'd be an expert using statistics to claim that experts using statistics can't be trusted. That's a time when 'common sense' knowledge is sufficient: if you've seen endless stories in the press about how experts predit X, and none about experts predicting not X, then when X doesn't happen you can safely lower your trust in experts without needing an Excel spreadsheet to prove it to yourself.
- coolgeek 10y ago> Gut feeling and intuition are also alternatives people frequently rely on, and aren't necessarily nonsense: the brain is very good at synthesising conclusions at the level of the subconscious that surface consciously as hunches or gut feelings And thus we get anti-vaxxers and climate change denial.