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It says fertility isn't an issue today, but it's a little out of touch with today's anxieties; most of Europe and Japan have such low fertility that their nativ

It says fertility isn't an issue today, but it's a little out of touch with today's anxieties; most of Europe and Japan have such low fertility that their native populations are in decline.

closeparen 10y ago
>most of Europe and Japan have such low fertility Their problem is not couples trying to conceive and failing, but people choosing not to have children.
- smallnamespace 10y ago
  This is only true of one strongly presumes that conscious decision-making is not at all influenced at all by the body's own fertility. But a fertile body can influence the mind in all sorts of ways -- changing hormones can modify sexual desire, for example.
- future1979 10y ago
  Yes .. in many cases, because they simply cannot afford to have children.
  - closeparen 10y ago
    Well, they clearly can, as many more people in more deeply impoverished parts of the world are having lots of children. Likely, they cannot afford to have children while providing the standard of living (own bedroom, back yard, healthy food, bonding time, good school, college education, etc) they consider the lower bound on acceptable.
    - future1979 10y ago
      I think it is clear that this is precisely what I meant. But thanks for your comment :)
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
- concinds 10y ago
  > people choosing not to have children Which does not prevent it from being a problem. Government policy can change that. Not forcing teenagers to go $150.000 in debt and to have a career to repay that until they're in their 30s would be the bare minimum.
darkxanthos 10y ago
I was really surprised the article didn't mention this. To be fair it's apparently something that has been evolving for decades, so it wasn't so much prediction but they definitely aren't inventing something wild. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/ https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/
naasking 10y ago
Every affluent country's fertility rate is below replenishment levels. Their population growth rate is only positive due to immigration. In fact, global population will likely peak around 2050, and then start falling, which will be a whole new crisis. People will look back at overpopulation fears and laugh.
- lqdc13 10y ago
  Sure, but why does it stop? It doesn't seem to be a specific population density, but culture + economics. Like for example, look at this Haiti plot: https://knoema.com/atlas/Haiti/Population-density https://knoema.com/atlas/Haiti/Population-density It is already 1.5x more dense than Germany. 3x more dense than China. Would it stop? When? Why is Switzerland 9x more dense than Ireland? Is population of Ireland expected to eventually grow to that of Switzerland?
  - naasking 10y ago
    Yes, environmental factors largely dictate the fertility rate, particularly economic such as career opportunities, and health care related (longevity and particularly infant mortality).
  - AnAfrican 10y ago
    density for countries is such a bad datapoint... (remember half of China is empty which lowers the national average by a lot)
- Reason077 10y ago
  In fact, global population will likely peak around 2050, and then start falling, which will be a whole new crisis. People will look back at overpopulation fears and laugh. A rapid fall in population would be problematic, but a steady state or slow gradual decline would be beneficial - and perhaps environmentally necessary. Obviously you need to ensure there are enough young people to support and care for the elderly, so population can't be too top-heavy. But improving technology (robots, AI) should reduce the need for labour without compromising living standards.
DavidAdams 10y ago
The anxiety from the film is very close to Europe's anxiety, I think. In the story, England is relatively stable and prosperous in a world full of chaos, but there's a sense that if refugees were allowed in, the stability would be upended and the limited resources of the country would be unable to support the onslaught. Sure, in the world of the film, the English are trying to enjoy the last decades of human existence while clinging to their privilege, whereas in real-world Europe there's a feeling they'll be demographically out-competed by immigrants. Without the pressure from low fertility among natives, European countries wouldn't feel so threatened by immigration. Ironically, of course, the only workable solution to the demographic crises in Europe and Japan is immigration. Otherwise, pension responsibilities will overwhelm the working-age population and the whole society will collapse.
- lacampbell 10y ago
  Ironically, of course, the only workable solution to the demographic crises in Europe and Japan is immigration. Otherwise, pension responsibilities will overwhelm the working-age population and the whole society will collapse. Staving off a demographic crisis using mass migration of middle class people from developing nations is a bit like staving off a petrochemical crisis by fracking or digging up national parks for coal. You're just shifting the problem to another time period and making irreversible changes to your country. It's not at all sustainable. Global population will peak, so eventually every country will have to come to terms with an ageing population. In many ways, Japan is trail blazer here while the west has its head in the sand.

It says fertility isn't an issue today, but it's a little out of touch with today's anxieties; most of Europe and Japan have such low fertility that their native populations are in decline.

closeparen 10y ago

>most of Europe and Japan have such low fertility Their problem is not couples trying to conceive and failing, but people choosing not to have children.

smallnamespace 10y ago
This is only true of one strongly presumes that conscious decision-making is not at all influenced at all by the body's own fertility. But a fertile body can influence the mind in all sorts of ways -- changing hormones can modify sexual desire, for example.
future1979 10y ago
Yes .. in many cases, because they simply cannot afford to have children.
- closeparen 10y ago
  Well, they clearly can, as many more people in more deeply impoverished parts of the world are having lots of children. Likely, they cannot afford to have children while providing the standard of living (own bedroom, back yard, healthy food, bonding time, good school, college education, etc) they consider the lower bound on acceptable.
  - future1979 10y ago
    I think it is clear that this is precisely what I meant. But thanks for your comment :)
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
concinds 10y ago
> people choosing not to have children Which does not prevent it from being a problem. Government policy can change that. Not forcing teenagers to go $150.000 in debt and to have a career to repay that until they're in their 30s would be the bare minimum.

darkxanthos 10y ago

I was really surprised the article didn't mention this. To be fair it's apparently something that has been evolving for decades, so it wasn't so much prediction but they definitely aren't inventing something wild. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/ https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/

naasking 10y ago

Every affluent country's fertility rate is below replenishment levels. Their population growth rate is only positive due to immigration. In fact, global population will likely peak around 2050, and then start falling, which will be a whole new crisis. People will look back at overpopulation fears and laugh.

lqdc13 10y ago
Sure, but why does it stop? It doesn't seem to be a specific population density, but culture + economics. Like for example, look at this Haiti plot: https://knoema.com/atlas/Haiti/Population-density https://knoema.com/atlas/Haiti/Population-density It is already 1.5x more dense than Germany. 3x more dense than China. Would it stop? When? Why is Switzerland 9x more dense than Ireland? Is population of Ireland expected to eventually grow to that of Switzerland?
- naasking 10y ago
  Yes, environmental factors largely dictate the fertility rate, particularly economic such as career opportunities, and health care related (longevity and particularly infant mortality).
- AnAfrican 10y ago
  density for countries is such a bad datapoint... (remember half of China is empty which lowers the national average by a lot)
Reason077 10y ago
In fact, global population will likely peak around 2050, and then start falling, which will be a whole new crisis. People will look back at overpopulation fears and laugh. A rapid fall in population would be problematic, but a steady state or slow gradual decline would be beneficial - and perhaps environmentally necessary. Obviously you need to ensure there are enough young people to support and care for the elderly, so population can't be too top-heavy. But improving technology (robots, AI) should reduce the need for labour without compromising living standards.

DavidAdams 10y ago

The anxiety from the film is very close to Europe's anxiety, I think. In the story, England is relatively stable and prosperous in a world full of chaos, but there's a sense that if refugees were allowed in, the stability would be upended and the limited resources of the country would be unable to support the onslaught. Sure, in the world of the film, the English are trying to enjoy the last decades of human existence while clinging to their privilege, whereas in real-world Europe there's a feeling they'll be demographically out-competed by immigrants. Without the pressure from low fertility among natives, European countries wouldn't feel so threatened by immigration. Ironically, of course, the only workable solution to the demographic crises in Europe and Japan is immigration. Otherwise, pension responsibilities will overwhelm the working-age population and the whole society will collapse.

lacampbell 10y ago
Ironically, of course, the only workable solution to the demographic crises in Europe and Japan is immigration. Otherwise, pension responsibilities will overwhelm the working-age population and the whole society will collapse. Staving off a demographic crisis using mass migration of middle class people from developing nations is a bit like staving off a petrochemical crisis by fracking or digging up national parks for coal. You're just shifting the problem to another time period and making irreversible changes to your country. It's not at all sustainable. Global population will peak, so eventually every country will have to come to terms with an ageing population. In many ways, Japan is trail blazer here while the west has its head in the sand.