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"but it's been pointed out repeatedly that he could have obtained an exit visa without a valid passport" But only by grace of some entity with the power to gra

by kenko 10y ago

"but it's been pointed out repeatedly that he could have obtained an exit visa without a valid passport" But only by grace of some entity with the power to grant him such a visa, right? He couldn't just ask for one and get it (someone in Slate I think said something like, look, Russia could have given him a visa and Cuba could have let him in—yeah, but those are things Russia and Cuba have to decide to do, not things Snowden can do off his own bat).

tptacek 10y ago
Yes, this is true, but if that's what's happening, the Russians are holding him hostage. You can simplify this whole point to: Unless the Russians aren't benign --- in which case it's a very bad thing that Snowden is in Russia --- if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he'd be in Ecuador.
- ScottBurson 10y ago
  > if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he'd be in Ecuador I think this is very naïve. The US wanted him very badly, and we can throw our weight around pretty well. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident
  - tptacek 10y ago
    Could you better explain what you're trying to say here? How is it that the US can prevent Snowden from boarding a plane in Moscow?
    - tedunangst 10y ago
      They use the HAARP installation to control the weather and cause a catastrophic lightning strike on his plane. That's why he can't go outside.
      - dtornabene 10y ago
        What do you get out of these comments? There was a time when these were downvoted out of existence, not merely slightly grayed. I'm not particularly swayed by your technical competence either. I'd be willing to bet as well that if I downloaded your comment history I'd find at least half of your comments are snark like this.
        tedunangst 10y ago
        Some people take things too seriously. I have little control over how they vote.
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      > How is it that the US can prevent Snowden from boarding a plane in Moscow? The US can't prevent Snowden from boarding a plan in Moscow. (Well, I mean, there are all kinds of means by which it might attempt to do so, but no one in this thread has suggested that they would be likely to use them.) It can, and would be far more likely to, OTOH, use its influence to a prevent a plane from Moscow from reaching Ecuador without being forced to the ground, searched for Snowden, etc., if Snowden did board it (or was suspected to have done so.) Which is exactly what happened (except, of course, that Snowden had not actually boarded the plane, despite the US suspicion that he had, and that the destination was Bolivia, not Ecuador) in the Evo Morales grounding incident referenced upthread, so I'm somewhat surprised that you didn't understand the fairly direct implication.
      - tptacek 10y ago
        How would the US even know who was on a flight from Moscow? If you believe Assange, the reason for the Morales incident was that Assange leaked false information to make that happen. Furthermore, what does any of this have to do with Snowden's suspended passport? The passport isn't what's keeping him in Russia. I think the two plausible things that might be are: (1) Snowden, (2) Russia. You think there's a third? Can you explain it in some detail?
        dragonwriter 10y ago
        > How would the US even know who was on a flight from Moscow? The US has foreign intelligence services, utilizing both human and technical means, and they attempt to monitor movements of persons who are of concern to the US, with varying degrees of success. (The degree to which Snowden is still actively a concern to the US is a bit less clear.) > If you believe Assange I don't, particularly, but on this particular point his claim isn't implausible, and, more to the point, isn't materially relevant. > the reason for the Morales incident was that Assange leaked false information to make that happen. Sure, that might be what they US believed Snowden was on the plane. Of course, were the US not both able and inclined to stop even a foreign leader's plane from transitting unmolested from Russia to South America if Snowden was believed to be on it, Assange's false leak (assuming that is the source of the belief) would be immaterial. That they have the capacity and will, however, to take such acts is demonstrated by the Morales incident independently of the source of the false belief that Snowden was on the plane. > Furthermore, what does any of this have to do with Snowden's suspended passport? Nothing, I wasn't responding to a claim about a passport I was responding to the claim that if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he would be in Ecuador, and there is nothing the US could do to stop him from simply boarding a plane in Moscow and flying to Ecuador. Their manifestly is something the US could do, and has demonstrated both the ability and willingness to do, to stop him from doing that. > The passport isn't what's keeping him in Russia. I think the two plausible things that might be are: (1) Snowden, (2) Russia. You think there's a third? Can you explain it in some detail? The United States. And I think I've explained it in excruciating detail in this post, and my prior post in this subthread.
mpyne 10y ago
Frankly I can't believe we're still debating whether a canceled passport 'trapped' Snowden in Russia or not, Wikileaks admitted two years ago that they told him to go to Russia: https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/461862504243953664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/461862504243953664?ref_...

by kenko 10y ago

tptacek 10y ago

Yes, this is true, but if that's what's happening, the Russians are holding him hostage. You can simplify this whole point to: Unless the Russians aren't benign --- in which case it's a very bad thing that Snowden is in Russia --- if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he'd be in Ecuador.

ScottBurson 10y ago
> if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he'd be in Ecuador I think this is very naïve. The US wanted him very badly, and we can throw our weight around pretty well. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident
- tptacek 10y ago
  Could you better explain what you're trying to say here? How is it that the US can prevent Snowden from boarding a plane in Moscow?
  - tedunangst 10y ago
    They use the HAARP installation to control the weather and cause a catastrophic lightning strike on his plane. That's why he can't go outside.
    - dtornabene 10y ago
      What do you get out of these comments? There was a time when these were downvoted out of existence, not merely slightly grayed. I'm not particularly swayed by your technical competence either. I'd be willing to bet as well that if I downloaded your comment history I'd find at least half of your comments are snark like this.
      - tedunangst 10y ago
        Some people take things too seriously. I have little control over how they vote.
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    > How is it that the US can prevent Snowden from boarding a plane in Moscow? The US can't prevent Snowden from boarding a plan in Moscow. (Well, I mean, there are all kinds of means by which it might attempt to do so, but no one in this thread has suggested that they would be likely to use them.) It can, and would be far more likely to, OTOH, use its influence to a prevent a plane from Moscow from reaching Ecuador without being forced to the ground, searched for Snowden, etc., if Snowden did board it (or was suspected to have done so.) Which is exactly what happened (except, of course, that Snowden had not actually boarded the plane, despite the US suspicion that he had, and that the destination was Bolivia, not Ecuador) in the Evo Morales grounding incident referenced upthread, so I'm somewhat surprised that you didn't understand the fairly direct implication.
    - tptacek 10y ago
      How would the US even know who was on a flight from Moscow? If you believe Assange, the reason for the Morales incident was that Assange leaked false information to make that happen. Furthermore, what does any of this have to do with Snowden's suspended passport? The passport isn't what's keeping him in Russia. I think the two plausible things that might be are: (1) Snowden, (2) Russia. You think there's a third? Can you explain it in some detail?
      - dragonwriter 10y ago
        > How would the US even know who was on a flight from Moscow? The US has foreign intelligence services, utilizing both human and technical means, and they attempt to monitor movements of persons who are of concern to the US, with varying degrees of success. (The degree to which Snowden is still actively a concern to the US is a bit less clear.) > If you believe Assange I don't, particularly, but on this particular point his claim isn't implausible, and, more to the point, isn't materially relevant. > the reason for the Morales incident was that Assange leaked false information to make that happen. Sure, that might be what they US believed Snowden was on the plane. Of course, were the US not both able and inclined to stop even a foreign leader's plane from transitting unmolested from Russia to South America if Snowden was believed to be on it, Assange's false leak (assuming that is the source of the belief) would be immaterial. That they have the capacity and will, however, to take such acts is demonstrated by the Morales incident independently of the source of the false belief that Snowden was on the plane. > Furthermore, what does any of this have to do with Snowden's suspended passport? Nothing, I wasn't responding to a claim about a passport I was responding to the claim that if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he would be in Ecuador, and there is nothing the US could do to stop him from simply boarding a plane in Moscow and flying to Ecuador. Their manifestly is something the US could do, and has demonstrated both the ability and willingness to do, to stop him from doing that. > The passport isn't what's keeping him in Russia. I think the two plausible things that might be are: (1) Snowden, (2) Russia. You think there's a third? Can you explain it in some detail? The United States. And I think I've explained it in excruciating detail in this post, and my prior post in this subthread.

mpyne 10y ago

Frankly I can't believe we're still debating whether a canceled passport 'trapped' Snowden in Russia or not, Wikileaks admitted two years ago that they told him to go to Russia: https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/461862504243953664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/461862504243953664?ref_...