5 ms·

If I am not mistaken - individual countries are not willing to negotiate trade treaties before the UK invokes article 50. Even if by some miracle Theresa May d

If I am not mistaken - individual countries are not willing to negotiate trade treaties before the UK invokes article 50. Even if by some miracle Theresa May decides to withhold invoking article 50 before creating new treaties using back channels with the 50 other trading partners of the UK, it wont be possible to enact them until the UK leaves the EU and negotiates a new trade deal with the EU.

dogma1138 10y ago
The EU will not really negotiate using back channels, the only miracle the UK can hope for is that it would be deemed that a full vote in both houses is needed to invoke Article 50 and hopefully it would fail.
hardlianotion 10y ago
Not precisely. The idea is that no discussions about anything will occur before Article 50 is invoked. Article 50 kicks off negotiations for the practicalities of leaving the EU. After that, and only after that, negotiations for UK's following status are supposed to take place. Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic. Amicable and realistic talks are very much in the interests of all concerned - and I guess from the EU point of view, the leadership resolution in the UK could have been a lot worse. The rules are meant to discourage les autres, but there is little appetite at the moment for other countries to flirt with leaving. Also rhetoric is beginning to calm down as well - no more calls for immediate Article 50 invocation and UKIP have faded into the background a little. So far so not as bad as it could be.
- mpweiher 10y ago
  "Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic." Well, that's your opinion. EU officials and heads of government appear to disagree with your view of what's best for them, having consistently and unerringly insisted that there will be NO negotiations whatsoever until Article 50 is invoked.
  - hardlianotion 10y ago
    Except that this is not the case. In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. And the foreign secretary explicitly mentions that UK is having precisely these conversations. The new administration is setting up a brexit department and accumulating expertise necessary to start negotiations. Talk is of article 50 invocation by year end (I think).
    - mpweiher 10y ago
      In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. Citation needed. I have never seen this, and a quick check reveals the opposite: "Ms Merkel added: “We have spoken to Britain and made clear there will be no negotiations with Britain until they have made their application, and there will be no cherry picking.”" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-angela-merkel-article-50-leave-europe-negotiations-talks-a7132261.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-refe... This is from yesterday.
      - hardlianotion 10y ago
        The idea that nobody will discuss anything is simply unsustainable, given the timescales and uncertainty involved. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammond-eu-leaders-happy-to-hold-informal-brexit-talks http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammo... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02612186-467b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02612186-467b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86...
        mpweiher 10y ago
        You do understand the difference between "negotiation" and "having an informal chat with colleagues"?
        10y ago

dogma1138 10y ago

The EU will not really negotiate using back channels, the only miracle the UK can hope for is that it would be deemed that a full vote in both houses is needed to invoke Article 50 and hopefully it would fail.

hardlianotion 10y ago

Not precisely. The idea is that no discussions about anything will occur before Article 50 is invoked. Article 50 kicks off negotiations for the practicalities of leaving the EU. After that, and only after that, negotiations for UK's following status are supposed to take place. Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic. Amicable and realistic talks are very much in the interests of all concerned - and I guess from the EU point of view, the leadership resolution in the UK could have been a lot worse. The rules are meant to discourage les autres, but there is little appetite at the moment for other countries to flirt with leaving. Also rhetoric is beginning to calm down as well - no more calls for immediate Article 50 invocation and UKIP have faded into the background a little. So far so not as bad as it could be.

mpweiher 10y ago
"Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic." Well, that's your opinion. EU officials and heads of government appear to disagree with your view of what's best for them, having consistently and unerringly insisted that there will be NO negotiations whatsoever until Article 50 is invoked.
- hardlianotion 10y ago
  Except that this is not the case. In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. And the foreign secretary explicitly mentions that UK is having precisely these conversations. The new administration is setting up a brexit department and accumulating expertise necessary to start negotiations. Talk is of article 50 invocation by year end (I think).
  - mpweiher 10y ago
    In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. Citation needed. I have never seen this, and a quick check reveals the opposite: "Ms Merkel added: “We have spoken to Britain and made clear there will be no negotiations with Britain until they have made their application, and there will be no cherry picking.”" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-angela-merkel-article-50-leave-europe-negotiations-talks-a7132261.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-refe... This is from yesterday.
    - hardlianotion 10y ago
      The idea that nobody will discuss anything is simply unsustainable, given the timescales and uncertainty involved. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammond-eu-leaders-happy-to-hold-informal-brexit-talks http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammo... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02612186-467b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02612186-467b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86...
      - mpweiher 10y ago
        You do understand the difference between "negotiation" and "having an informal chat with colleagues"?
        10y ago