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Interesting article. I can't remember who said it, but humans tend to over-estimate change in the long term, and under-estimate change in the short term. It w
by bavcyc 11y ago
Interesting article.
I can't remember who said it, but humans tend to over-estimate change in the long term, and under-estimate change in the short term.
It will be interesting to see what changes do occur in this time frame.
- yourapostasy 11y agoThat is Amara's Law [1]. The paraphrase given by Cringely that is commonly quoted (to my knowledge, Amara himself never gave as concise a quote as the paraphrase) is: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara