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So you're suggesting instead that 'superforecasters' exist, but that they haven't been discovered by finance? It'd be a pretty lucrative market for people able
by aynsof 11y ago
So you're suggesting instead that 'superforecasters' exist, but that they haven't been discovered by finance? It'd be a pretty lucrative market for people able to predict the future. I think it's far more likely that it's less than excellent science.
- XFrequentist 11y agoI'm struck that with a tiny bit of research you could figure out yourself if/how they accounted for the possibility of luck (hint: they did).